Belfast Telegraph

Friday 19 September 2014

The Punter: Polish ace could be golden boy at Euro 2012

Finding the winner of the Golden Boot for top goalscorer is always a popular market.

But one bet to avoid is the special double involving the player to hit most goals and his team winning the tournament. The odds represent poor value due to firms reducing their prices considerably rather than settling at accumulative odds.

For example, Germany are 3/1 to win outright and Mario Gomez is 8/1 to score more goals than anyone else.

Taking the two should work out at 35/1 but the best price offered is 14/1. And it's all due to what's known as a related contingency whereby bookmakers believe that one part has a direct bearing on the other. Theoretically, the more goals Gomez scores, the greater the chance of Germany winning and vice-versa.

However, all evidence shows that there is no direct or strong link between a player being top scorer and his country winning. In the 2010 World Cup, Spain won and those who backed them with David Villa lost out as Villa was joint-top with three others.

In only one of the last four European Championships has an outright joint-top scorer played for the winners.

As for the Golden Boot, Cristiano Ronaldo is value at 14/1. He's that price because Portugal are up against Germany and Holland but if they qualify, Ronaldo will have a great chance.

France's Karim Benzema (16/1) is another to consider but at 22/1 go for Poland's Robert Lewandowski.

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