Welsh National Halcon Genelardais would appear to hold all the aces in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow tomorrow, but Kinburn can give him something to think about.
For although Alan King has long thought of his imposing six-year-old as the ideal type for the slog, he has been left with a difficult task following the defection of those at the top of the weights.
Carvill's Hill was the last horse to carry more than 11st to victory in this race in 1991 and he ended up being Gold Cup class, and not even King would confess that Halcon Genelardais is ready to mix it with Kauto Star and the like just yet.
As a result, Howard Johnson's Kinburn is the one to side with. He has stamina in abundance and is reasonably treated on some of his form.
He chased home Naunton Brook in the Northumberland National at Hexham last month when some sloppy jumping errors probably cost him his chance.
That is a worry, as the Chepstow fences certainly take some jumping, but he is much better off with Naunton Brook and the slower pace should mean he gets more time to organise his fencing.
He is a young horse with untapped potential and will be very difficult to keep out of the frame.
Paradi can continue David Pipe's fine run of form in the Grade One Coral Future Champion Finale Juvenile Hurdle.
A winner of both his starts on the Flat for Francois Doumen in France, he landed what looked like a decent little event at Leicester on his debut for the Pond House team.
Both Leamington Lad and Marodima have gone close since and this does not look to be a strong race for the money on offer.
Raffaello is the one to be on in the Coral Backing The NSPCC Beginners' Chase.
Paul Nicholls' charge only lost to the smart mare Refinement in three starts over hurdles and looks tailor-made for the bigger obstacles.