A Perfect day if Truth comes out at Investec Oaks
Published 05/06/2009 | 00:00
In contrast to the Derby, which will tomorrow be contested by eight fancied colts from Ireland and five long shots trained on home soil, betting on the Investec Oaks this afternoon is dominated by British fillies.
Even so, there are sufficient doubts about them all, at the odds, to suggest that the best value again concerns the two Irish raiders — Perfect Truth, stabled alongside no fewer than six Derby colts at Ballydoyle and Oh Goodness Me.
Sariska admittedly looks a legitimate favourite, though perhaps her most striking performance came on the occasion of her sole defeat. That was on her reappearance at Newbury, where she ended up carting herself onto the heels of the protagonists over just seven furlongs.
In the process she confirmed herself very comfortable in soft going. Having in the meantime beaten an average lot in the Musidora Stakes, over ten furlongs at York, she has coped competently with quicker conditions, albeit over level ground. She may find running downhill today a different proposition, unless rain intervenes.
Rainbow View was the outstanding filly of her generation last year, but proved laboured on firm ground when odds-on for the 1,000 Guineas last month.
Midday looked pretty ordinary when beaten by the humdrum colt, Debussy, here in the spring. She could not have made a better job of proving her comfort over a similar course in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.
Even in the hands of an all-time Oaks master in Henry Cecil, she demands a leap of faith. Remember that she is likely to face a more searching gallop this time, and is a daughter of the sprinter, Oasis Dream.
Everyone expects a fast pace to be set by Perfect Truth, because she produced an improved performance ridden that way in the Cheshire Oaks, but she actually went off much too fast that day, and so disguised the extent of her progress for a first crack at this kind of distance.
Having been rousted clear round the tight bends, Perfect Truth ultimately scrambled home by a short head. Johnny Murtagh may well ride her somewhat more conservatively this time.
The big clue to Perfect Truth's chance comes from Peeping Fawn, who finished second here two years ago for the same stable after herself looking nothing out of the ordinary that spring. Indeed, she had been beaten in three maidens before blossoming and went unbeaten in four Group Ones.
That kind of thing should no longer surprise us about O'Brien, who increasingly allows middle-distance three-year-olds to find their way race by race. Perfect Truth (4.05) has not yet shown the lustre of Rainbow View or Sariska, but at 10-1 looks infinitely better value each-way.
Oh Goodness Me could make radical improvement for this step up in distance. She plugged on through the mud for third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and while Bolger is wary about faster ground, there is not enough evidence to discourage backers at 14-1.
Best value among the home team could be Wadaat, unsighted behind Midday at Lingfield, but apparently transformed when forcing a photo in the Italian Oaks.
Last year's winner, Look Here, makes her reappearance in the Investec Coronation Cup over the same course, but she must raise her game against colts first time out.