Cheltenham Gold Cup tips and stats to make last day a winner
The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the race that everyone looks forward to at the Cheltenham Festival and Cheltenham Betting will be looking to enhance it’s record in the race having tipped up Imperial Commander to win the race at 9/1 two years ago. The best Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips can often be picked by using stats and one horse this year meets every trend and looks a good bet to complete a double in the race.
One of the key stats for this race in the past ten years reflects that it has been a great race for punters, all of the last ten winners have been in the first three in the betting so this looks a race where the best horse will often triumph. If one of the first three in the betting is to win once again, then that will narrow the field to last year’s winner Long Run, two time winner Kauto Star and third favourite Burton Port unless there is a huge late gamble before the race. The other two ‘must have’ stats from the past ten years that all winners have met are, the horse must have had between two and five runs this season and the horse must have won a Grade One Chase. The only favourite which doesn’t meet both of those is Burton Port, he actually doesn’t meet either so could be one to oppose this year as far as win purposes go.
There are even more stats that most of the recent Gold Cup winners have met. Nine of the last ten Gold Cup winners had won at least once over fences that season, had run between six and fourteen times over fences, had won or been placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival, had a previous rating of 166 or more and were aged seven to nine. See the full list of Gold Cup Runners here.
Both Kauto Star and Long Run have won over fences this season, Kauto Star has had more than fourteen starts over fences but he was the exception to the rule in the past ten years anyway so that can’t be held against him. Long Run once again meets this stat also having had thirteen starts over fences. Both horses have won the Gold Cup before so have of course at least placed at the Festival before whilst both are well clear of the 166 rating. As far as age goes, Long Run was the exception to the age rule last year when he won it at six, being now a seven year old that probably enhances his claims whilst Kauto Star, at twelve years old, is bidding to become the oldest winner since 1951. This means that Kauto Star fails two of the strong stats (although one is less of a concern than the other) whilst Long Run meets all of them and has to be considered a pretty good bet at the odds.
The odds are made by bookies and punters not the horses so some may choose to throw out the stat about the winner coming from the first three in the betting and if you do that, one horse who appeals is Quel Esprit. He has run three times this season and won a Grade One chase on his latest start. He also meets four out of three of the other important stats, only failing on his official rating which is 160 and the fact that he hasn’t placed at a Festival but he did finish fourth in the Champion Bumper which is close enough really. Click here for more tips for the last day of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.