Belfast Telegraph

Friday 25 July 2014

Grand National 2011 tips - following the money a sound strategy

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The Grand National 2011 betting odds have been available since minutes after last year’s race was run and there have been a huge amount of changes in the past twelve months.

Perhaps the biggest changes could be still to come with plenty of changes in the odds expected right up until 16.15 on Saturday afternoon. For the latest Grand National 2011 odds click here.



Keeping up to date with all of the changes in the betting can be very important as it reflects how well fancied each horse is on the day of the Grand National. Those who drift on the day are less likely to do well, whilst those who are well backed are clearly expected to run a very strong race. Last year’s winner, Don’t Push It, was very well backed on course before the race and won quite comfortably so it will be very interesting to see if the money comes again for the horse this year or if it is less fancied than it was last year.



Odds on the Grand National can be easily compared on odds comparison websites. Rather than having to check the odds on each horse with every bookie you can, at a glance, see which bookie or bookies are best odds about each Grand National runner. Checking what horse ends up as favourite or most likely favourite can often help find the winner. Last year’s winner, Don’t Push It, was backed into favouritism whilst the Grand National favourite also won the race in 1998, 2005 and 2008 proving market leader often does very well.



It is not only the most fancied horse that often runs well and wins the Grand National. In general, it pays to concentrate only on the most fancied Grand National horses. In no less than fifteen of the last twenty Grand Nationals, the race has been won by a horse who started the race at 16/1 or less. You don’t necessarily have to back the winner to make money on the Grand National as there are also the placed horses who reward each way bets. However, that statistic for the winners’ starting prices certainly stands out and suggests that only the top eight or nine horses should really be considered most year’s for betting on the winner. That can rule out at least three quarters of the field proving the Grand National Odds aren’t just for working out how much you can win on the race.



On the other five occasions where the winner of the Grand National started the race at odds bigger than 16/1, horses won at varying degrees of early confidence. There was a 20/1 winner and a couple of 33/1 winners but the one that really stands out was the 100/1 winner, 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome. This was one of the rare occasions when the Grand National Odds really got it wrong. Mon Mome was relatively well fancied early in the day compared to his starting odds but he drifted quite heavily on the course and clearly massively outran expectations. The fact that he drifted wasn’t bad news for those who backed Mon Mome with best odds guaranteed, which are offered by around half the online bookies.

If a bookie offers best odds guaranteed it means that if you take the price on a horse earlier in the day (which most people do when placing their bet) and then the horse starts the race at bigger odds you will get those bigger odds. So if you had backed Mon Mome at say 50/1 earlier in the day with best odds guaranteed you will have been paid at 100/1. This shows the use of checking what you get from the online bookies.



Grand National Guide has all the latest odds and bookie offers as well as a full list of Grand National runners. To see what the experts are tipping you can also check out their Grand National tips.