Belfast Telegraph

Friday 24 October 2014

Grand National runners 2012 that are favoured by weight

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One of the most important factors in the Grand National is weight because the Grand National is a handicap.

This means the best horse will often not win, it is the best handicapped horse that wins. The horses who have shown more ability to date will carry more weight and although the horses higher up in the weight have obviously earned their weight, the Grand National often goes to a horse lower down in the weights because they are yet to show their hands to the handicapper. A full list of Grand National runners and their weights here.

The golden rule for punters in the Grand National in past years has generally been to put a line through horses carrying more than 11 stone which is often almost half the field. However, when Don’t Push It won the Grand National in 2010 carrying 11-5 many stats fans had to change their approach to the race and now they confidently put a line through anything carrying more than 11-5 as no horse has carried more than 11-5 to victory in the Grand National since Grand National specialist Red Rum won his fourth Grand National in 1977. This could be bad news for the well fancied Synchronised and also last year’s winner Ballabriggs who are the two top weights in this year’s race, set to carry 11-10 and 11-9 respectively if they both run. Ballabriggs isn’t ruled out of the places though, in the last seven years the only horses to even place in the Grand National carrying more than 11-5 have been horses who have won or placed in the Grand National previously.

So what weights have the best record in the Grand National? Well, the Grand National has changed over the years from a handicapping perspective so to find out what the best weight to carry is these days it should pay to concentrate on only this century. It is easy to see why punters have often put a line through horses carrying over 11 stone, just two of those races in the last twelve years have gone to horses carrying more than 11 stone and on both occasions those horses were very well fancied at 7/1 and 10/1 in the betting. The most common weight band to be carried to victory since 2000 has been 10-7 to 11 stone inclusive, 66.6% of the Grand National winners this century have won with that on their backs whilst 10-6 or less has been the winning weight only twice in the last twelve years and it is worth noting that the lowest weight carried to victory during that time frame was 10-4. This is a clear indication that whilst you don’t want a horse who is too exposed in the Grand National, you still need a ‘class’ horse to win the race which is why that middle range of weights seem to be favoured. Find out which Grand National runners are favoured by their weight this year.

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