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Only two Grand National runners fit most likely winner stats

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Published 14/04/2012

For years punters have been looking for the best ways to narrow down the Grand National Runners, list here , and the method most punters tend to use is the stats of previous winners.

There are certain stats that all of the recent winners meet and by applying them to the Grand National runners each year you can usually narrow down the field by half, but what stats do we have to use for this?

Age can be used to narrow down the field by more than a few runners, most stats for narrowing down the field just go back ten years or so but if looking for a Grand National winner that was either younger than 8 or older than 12 you have to go all the way back to before the war and because of this, we can only consider horses in that age group which is bad news for the well fancied Organisedconfusion who is only 7 whilst Hello Bud and Black Apalachi, who have both previously finished in the top five in the Grand National, look too old at 14 and 13 respectively.

One of the most important factors in this race is weight because the Grand National is a handicap. Those at the top of weights have struggled over the years giving weight to other runners and whilst the majority of recent winners have carried 11 stone or less to victory the cut off seems to be 11-5 with no horse carrying more than that to victory since the great Red Rum in 1977. Here we lose two of the favourites as the two top weights, Synchronised and Ballabriggs (who will carry 11-10 and 11-09 respectively), look likely to struggle to get their heads in front whilst Weird Al, Neptune Collonges and Calgary Bay also have to carry more than 11-5 this year.

It is often said that you need a two and a half mile horse to win the Grand National but the stats suggest that is far from the truth as all of the last ten winners have won at three miles or more before winning the Grand National. That is no surprise really as three miles is only two thirds of the Grand National distance and horses need plenty of stamina to win a Grand National. Two of the most high profile horses this year to not have won over three miles or more under rules are Becauseicouldntsee and Seabass and that means we’ve ruled out another two horses that are 20/1 or below.



Experience is also useful in a Grand National, a horse who hasn’t run in many chases is likely to struggle over the huge Grand National fences and also struggle in the hustle and bustle of a the massive Grand National field. Many of this year’s fancied horses are lightly raced sorts but the last ten Grand National winners had all had at least ten races over fences and if that stat is upheld this year then you can put a line through the least experienced runners Cappa Bleu and On His Own who have both had just six starts as well as Junior and Shakalakaboomboom.

All of these stats so far would be ‘must have’ stats that at least the last ten winners of the Grand National have met and that reduces the field this year to just 16 possible winners. We can take a few risks now and rule out horses who don’t meet some common stats and it is worth noting that seven of the twelve winners this century had previous experience of the Grand National fences. Out of those horses, you want the best jumpers so take out horses who have fallen three times or more in their career and only five of those sixteen possible winners remain. Those horses are West End Rocker, Killyglen, The Midnight Club, Rare Bob and Vic Venturi. Now consider that 17 of the last 21 Grand National winners were 20/1 or less and 17 of the last 20 horses to finish in the top five in the race were 20/1 or less so clearly the fancied horses do well and the only horses from that shortlist that look likely to go off at those odds are West End Rocker and Killyglen and the winner might just come from one of those two horses.

Back West End Rocker and Killyglen with BetVictor to get 6 places and £100 of Free Bets this Grand National.

Belfast Telegraph

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