Price wars, gazumping .. the real Home Truths
Tuesday Nov 13 2007
The current housing market in Northern Ireland is very much a mixed bag for Tyrone-born Siobhan McAleer, who opened the first Mortgage Shop in Belfast's Anne Street 15 years ago. With house price growth in the region of 50% plus in the past 18-months, property is the hot topic here.
Add to that conflicting reports of house price growth over the crucial third
quarter of this year - some say it is up by just over 3%, while others say
it is down by the same amount. Mortgage shop founder Siobhan agrees it is a
local obsession.
Spiralling house prices have made Northern Ireland
the most expensive place in the UK to buy a property outside London.
But while the property price boom was initially hailed as manna from heaven
for homeowners, Siobhan argues the housing landscape here has changed - and
not all of it for the better.
She explains: "Equity in a house
gives people confidence. People live from month to month and now they are
able to do that, but still have a cushion."
However, she
claims over-confidence in a booming market is not without risk: "There
are those people who felt they had to have a buy-to-let property so
confidence can go a step too far."
Now she claims the market
is typified by price slashing and 'gazundering'.
Gazundering is the
reverse of gazumping, and involves a buyer agreeing to one price only to
drop it before completing the sale.
"Vendors won't talk about
it. Nobody wants to talk about dropping prices by tens of thousands before
selling," she says. "And that is happening here on a very big
scale. No purchaser is really that proud of doing it, but it is happening.
"We had a property agreed for £535,000 and two days before completion it
was dropped to £495,000 and the vendor didn't bat an eyelid or try to
negotiate," says Siobhan.
In another instance, a vendor saw
the agreed price plummet from £375,000 to £335,000, according to Siobhan.
"There are very few completions now without that going on," she
claims. "It is going on, it is just to what extent we don't know."
But she claims the real losers are those who bought when the market peaked
earlier this year: "The whole momentum got completely out of control
too quickly. The bottom line is if you bought in the last year you paid 20%
too much - which is not too comforting." And while established
homeowners should be able to ride out the storm, recouping any losses in the
next six to nine months, the usual vulnerable groups such as first-time
buyers and low income families could be in trouble, according to Siobhan.
She claims house prices could take a tumble in local towns, despite reports
to the contrary. The Halifax House Price survey for the third quarter of
2007 revealed towns such as Newtownards and Carrickfergus have seen the
fastest rise in house prices in Northern Ireland over the past year of 62%
and 58% respectively.
"I worry about towns outside Belfast
being affected," she adds. "I think Belfast will be alright."
She agrees, however, that buying property is all about timing. So how does the
average house-hunter crack the code?
"I can make informed
choices because I can see all the reports, but anyone could have seen the
rate of growth was so extraordinarily high and frenetic it was not for real,"
adds Siobhan.
A property investor herself, she offloaded a house
last year when she believed the writing was on the wall: "I knew it was
the right time - if you see figures like 50% growth in Northern Ireland - it
is just madness."
And despite some reports indicating a dip in
house price growth here in recent months (down 3.2% for the third quarter of
2007, Halifax), Siobhan believes it is not over yet: "House prices are
still too high for first-time buyers unless they buy through Co-Ownership."
But the market itself could give first-time buyers a leg up on the property
ladder. "I think if prices go back 25% it will kickstart the market
again. The buy-to-let (property) owners would have to sell. They have houses
within a first-time buyers' price range which could bring this type of buyer
back."
Despite the fall-out of spiralling house prices here,
she believes the government is committed to both first-time buyers and the
goal of affordable housing: "I don't think the Assembly is just paying
lip service to this issue. There has been an affordable housing review and
our ministers are looking to the Southern model to see what has worked there.
"
She fears, however, the pace of change may not be quick
enough: "It is one of the issues of an immature government."
Siobhan claims a three-pronged approach is the way forward for an overheated
local market. "A combination of a 25% price drop, interest rates coming
down and the government helping them (first-time buyers) with stamp duty.
And, yes, I do believe the first two things will happen," she says.
More importantly though, is the need for a new message to reach beleaguered
first-time buyers who feel priced out: "We need something to turn them
on again as they have been totally turned off."
With bidding
wars and competition from investors a thing of the past, Siobhan says there
is some good news: "There are opportunities for first-time buyers now.
Prices are still too high. However, rents will have to go up in the not too
distant future, so it will be more attractive to buy." These days the
Mortgage Shop's business is more about homeowners than first-time buyers: "
The number of first-time buyers for us has fallen from 25% to 14%, but
remortgaging is up from 40% to 60%," says Siobhan.
For her,
the message is clear: "People are remortgaging to carry out significant
improvements to their homes. Paving and conservatory companies are seeing a
huge rise in business. People do significant improvements to their homes
when they plan to stay there for a while as they will not recoup the costs
otherwise."
And ironically, it is all that extra equity being
enjoyed by many local homeowners that is being spent on lavish home
comforts, such as luxury kitchens and bathrooms.
But househunters
who want to splash the cash are being accommodated by all too eager lenders,
claims Siobhan: "Part of the problem in the Northern Ireland market was
that lenders were too liberal, compared to the Republic of Ireland where it
is still quite hard to get a mortgage."
She claims
self-certification, which happens with some lenders here but not in the
south where a host of documents are required, simply "encourages
people's greed". Self-certification basically means a borrower doesn't
have to go through the usual channels to prove their income by providing pay
slips - and this, she claims can lead to over-stretching.
"The
lender isn't looking at affordability," says Siobhan. At the Mortgage
Shop proof of earnings is a requirement which, in turn, is evidence of a
responsible attitude to lending.
She admits, however, the mortgage
process in the Republic is time-consuming, but believes this bureaucracy
could be reduced while retaining responsible lending.
Nonetheless,
crucial differences remain between the two market places: "The average
first-time buyer in the Republic earns 30,000 euros a year (£24,000), and
they are aged 19-20. That is one of the big problems for first-time buyers
here and incomes need to go up. Their numbers (first-time buyers) have
dropped to 14% and of that percentage, most couldn't do it without help from
their parents."
And this time, it is the 'olds' equity which
is taking a bashing. Siobhan urges caution: "Even that is problematic
in the long term. What if their (the parents) equity goes down? Also what
happens when they want their money back?"
She takes a similar
attitude to the trend here for buying with a friend: "We point out that
at some stage, one will have to buy the other out."
In the
wake of the Northern Rock crisis, however, the financial industry has put
more safeguards in place: "We could get back to the days of being
interviewed and that might not be a bad thing. If a mortgage is made very
easy for you to get, do you really think about the repayments?" Siobhan
says the ideal scenario would involve government-backed initiatives whereby
social and private housing are part and parcel of the same scheme.
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