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John Simpson

Forecast from university gives a relatively positive outcome to Covid-19 crisis

John Simpson


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Household spending is lower than a year ago as the economy continues to suffer during the pandemic

Household spending is lower than a year ago as the economy continues to suffer during the pandemic

Household spending is lower than a year ago as the economy continues to suffer during the pandemic

Unemployment in Northern Ireland may increase to a peak of 13% later this year. But an otherwise optimistic assessment by the University of Ulster Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) suggests that the Northern Ireland economy could recover the lost output and incomes caused by the current recession by late 2023 or in 2024.

The economists from UU have outlined what they assess are possible outcomes of present actions by business managers and by government policy makers.

Looking ahead to gauge how the economy may change is a hazardous task. There have been no precedents for the type of recession that has been, in part, a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic. The UUEPC has usefully compared the experience in NI from previous downturns in the economy including the financial crash earlier this century.