Disorderly Brexit 'would hit economy in Republic'
A disorderly Brexit would have immediate economic implications affecting most areas of activity in the Republic, the Central Bank of Ireland has warned.
But it added that economic growth is still expected to remain positive in the event of the UK crashing out of the EU. In its second quarterly bulletin, the Central Bank warned of the heightened levels of risk and uncertainty over Brexit.
The bulletin examines recent trends in the domestic economy and provides the Central Bank's forecasts for the Irish economy and its views on domestic economic policy issues. The report shows that the strong economic performance in the past year is expected to moderate slightly this year. It adds that if a Brexit agreement is reached, the outlook for growth in the Irish economy remains positive, but warned of some uncertainty over a "less favourable" international economic environment
The bulletin also said economic growth in the Republic is expected to be 4.2% this year, falling to 3.6% in 2020. The unemployment rate will drop to 5.4% and 5% for 2019 and 2020 respectively.
The Central Bank forecasts that underlying economic activity will continue to grow at a relatively solid pace in coming years.
The rate of global and euro area economic activity has weakened since last autumn and prospects for growth in Ireland's main trading partners have been lowered further in recent months. The forecasts are based on a Brexit deal being reached and a transition period coming into effect until the end of 2020.