Belfast Telegraph

Doubts cast on recession after services growth

By Jamie Grierson

The UK's double-dip recession has again been called into question as a survey revealed further growth in the powerhouse services sector.

The Markit/CIPS survey came in at 53.3 in April, which although a drop from 55.3 in the previous month, still represents growth for the 16th month in a row.

The economy entered a technical recession in the first three months of the year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), as it shrank 0.2%, following a 0.3% decline in the previous quarter.

But Markit chief economist Chris Williamson said: "From what we are hearing from panellists, this certainly does not sound like an economy in recession."

The sector, which makes up around 75% of the total economy, was boosted by a rise in incoming new business, driven by companies' success at converting inquiries into contracts, Markit said.

In addition, the data showed that optimism among UK service providers hit its highest level in more than two years, with more than 50% of those surveyed expecting a rise in activity in 12 months' time.

The survey follows results from the manufacturing sector, which saw growth slow to its lowest level of the year, fuelling fears that the economy will struggle to return to growth.

Some economists cast doubt over the ONS figures when they were published last week, following a run of strong industry surveys from the manufacturing and services sector.

The Bank of England last week called the ONS estimates on the construction sector "perplexing".

However, the figure was only a first estimate, with 40% of the total data used in June's final version so far collected, and subject to revision.

Markit said the underlying performance of the UK service sector remained positive in April, with activity, new business and employment all recording growth.

The survey revealed that competitive pressures and the need to offer discounts to attract more customers bore down on pricing power in the sector last month, consequently squeezing the margins.

Mr Williamson went on: "Even though the weaker services growth follows similar slowdowns in manufacturing and construction, the PMI surveys suggest that the economy will have expanded again in April, and that the recent gloomy official data pointing to a downturn in the first quarter will eventually be revised to show modest growth."

He said a question remains over whether the data are weak enough to encourage the Bank of England to pump more cash into the economy, as inflation remains far above the 2% target.


The total amount of the economy made up by the services sector