Inflation to give the economy a boost, says think-tank
The UK economy failed to grow in the second quarter of 2012 but will enjoy an 'Indian summer' as falling inflation helps hard-pressed households, according to a respected forecaster.
The Ernst -amp; Young Item Club believes the extra bank holiday for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee helped keep the economy in its double-dip recession in the last quarter, capping a "dismal" first half in which confidence was hit by the eurozone debt crisis.
But it predicts a return to growth in the current quarter as faster-than-expected falls in inflation give consumers more money to spend on the high street, while the Olympics will provide a further boost.
But second-half growth will merely cancel out falls in the first half, meaning the economy will be stagnant for 2012 as a whole. Just three months ago, the group had predicted 2012 growth of 0.4%.
It said inflation, at 2.8% in May, is set to continue to drop to 1.7% at the end of 2012, helped by the Chancellor's recent decision to postpone the increase in fuel duty and falling energy prices.
Chief economic adviser Peter Spencer said: "Spiralling inflation has cut real wages by 7.5% over the last four years, but the squeeze is almost over.
"The boost to household finances and the subsequent pick-up in spending should be enough to push the UK back into positive territory this year - but don't expect a consumer-led recovery further out.
"Longer term, consumers are going to be more focused on reducing their debt burden rather than splashing the cash."
To generate a sustainable recovery, the UK needs to concentrate on improving its exports and encourage businesses to invest more, he said.
Item, which uses the same model as the Treasury, is forecasting a 1.6% rise in GDP in 2013, followed by 2.6% the next year.
But it warned that recent falls in unemployment were unlikely to continue as the private sector struggles to make up for the cutbacks in the public sector.
Unemployment will peak at 8.7% next year, from 8.2% currently. Mr Spencer added: "This will also have a knock-on effect on pay settlements, weakening employees' negotiating power and keeping earnings growth subdued."