Belfast Telegraph

Leading trade body slashes UK GDP growth prediction

By John-Paul Ford Rojas

A leading business group has downgraded its UK growth forecast and sounded a warning about the "time bomb" of Britain's surging trade deficit after a disappointing first quarter.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said it expected GDP to grow by 2.3% this year, down from a previous prediction of 2.7%, although it expected the slowdown to be temporary.

BCC director-general John Longworth said the UK was "heading the wrong way" on trade, with Britain's expansion built on consumer spending - a "systemic weakness for years" -as the forecast predicted export growth slowing next year.

The cut to the GDP outlook came after figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that in the first quarter of 2015, GDP growth slipped to 0.3%, its weakest since the end of 2012.

Mr Longworth said: "It is always disappointing when we have to downgrade our growth forecast, but the unexpectedly low figures from the ONS on Q1 2015 make it unavoidable."

The BCC's economic forecast sees earnings growth accelerating over the next three years, but youth unemployment remaining high and the trade deficit - the shortfall between imports and exports - rising.

Mr Longworth said: "The one area which causes most concern is the increasing trade deficit.

"The growth we see is built on consumer spend and this has been a systemic weakness for years. Despite good intentions, we are heading the wrong way.

"The trade deficit is an economic time bomb waiting to go off. We have to confront it head-on, and that means getting more of our businesses exporting their goods and services overseas."

The BCC's forecast also pencilled in a rise in interest rates to 0.75% in the second quarter of next year.

Belfast Telegraph