The National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) has told the Republic’s Department of Finance in a new business plan it will not recoup the €4.8bn for the Irish taxpayer it envisaged in its original forecasts published last year.
Political sources said while last year's business plan included an estimate of being able to return €4.8bn some time after 2020 when NAMA finishes its work, the number of performing Irish loans has deteriorated further, putting this at risk. However, the plan still envisages a profit for the agency and any loss will be recovered by a levy on the banks.
A fresh business plan went to the department yesterday with a range of new assumptions about the property market and NAMA's chances of recovering money. The plan has to be reviewed by |Finance Minister Brian Lenihan before being published, most likely next week.
NAMA was set up to take €81bn in problem loans off the balance sheets of five debt-laden Irish banks in order to get them lending again. Around €5bn of the loans relate to assets in Northern Ireland.
NAMA’s core assumption is that of the loans it is taking over, only 20% of these will ultimately default.