Businesses across Northern Ireland are bracing themselves for a long recession in the wake of the Covid-19 shutdown, but also must deal with the impact and uncertainty of Brexit.
How deep and long a recession will depend a lot on how the London and Belfast governments approach the expected downturn and whether there is an extension to the Brexit transition, according to one businessman.
Connaire McGreevy, founder of CTS Projects, a Warrenpoint-based heating installation, property maintenance and construction company, said Finance Minister Conor Murphy predicting a "very severe" recession was correct in his analysis.
But he added: "Conor Murphy can step in if he wants to avoid a deep recession, to borrow for capital works, building schools, hospitals, roads, housing."
The UK Government's approach - whether it decides to borrow at historically low rates to fund the spending - will be key.
Mr McGreevy, also the founder of Mourne Mountains Brewery, owner of the Ship Bar in the lough side town and chairman of Warrenpoint FC, said the coronavirus delivered a "real jab", but the "big right hook" remains Brexit.
CTS is currently operating at 50-60% in output terms but wants to ramp that up to 90% by September.
While acknowledging much depends on the science and public health, the company owner wants to bring his staff back to work and is asking his public sector clients to open up, particularly relating to outside jobs.
Mr McGreevy has tried to plan for Brexit but he expects growing pressure for an extension to the transition period, a position rejected by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
With many fixed priced long-term contracts, potential price increases by suppliers, many of them European, will have to be absorbed and that is "difficult in this industry with the (tight) margins".
On the upside the brewery - in partnership with food delivery company Deli Lites - has developed an online business, shipping for the first time to all the major Irish cities three times a week. Ivor Ferguson, who farms around 100 acres in Co Armagh, mostly sheep, said his animals have not gone to market, but he is concerned of a collapse in prices when they do in about four weeks.
Farmers producing for the Easter trade were badly affected, though Ramadan and other festivals helped buoy the early lamb trade, said Mr Ferguson, who is the Ulster Farmers' Union president.
"There have been serious problems in general because food service stopped functioning. That was a major issue for beef and milk producers," he said.
If there is a prolonged recession, there is likely to be a lot less dining out, which means less sales of the more lucrative prime cuts.
"There is a big demand for mince, but people are not buying the prime cuts, and that is a big concern," Mr Ferguson said.
On Brexit, the recent failure of a vote to maintain certain standards, and the long-term possibility of a trade deal with the US that could lead to cheaper produce sold in the UK, is a major fear for farmers.
On the housing market, Ulster Bank chief economist Richard Ramsey said: "The Covid-19 pandemic has paused the housing market with HMRC reporting an 80% year-on-year slump in transactions in April with a fall of that magnitude anticipated for Q2.
"Activity for the year is expected to be around half that of 2019. When the market gets moving again it will reflect the changed environment not least in the credit and labour market worlds."