View from Dublin: price rise after Brexit
Thanks to Brexit, we will end up paying more for practically everything. That is one obvious conclusion from the Copenhagen Economics report on Brexit and trade.
Forget about exports for one moment.
Around 40% of what Irish retailers import from places other than the UK comes through the UK on its way here.
Around 53% of exports outside the UK use the same land bridge across Britain to get to their destination.
Unless there is a sizeable retreat from its red line issues on Brexit, the British Government will end up negotiating some kind of Free Trade Agreement with the EU.
That means customs checks, additional costs associated with that and delays across that land bridge.
This will impact directly on the price of what you buy in Irish shops. We can explore alternative trade routes in and out of the country using Irish ports and avoiding Britain, but that won't work for perishable goods like food for example.
It takes too long.
And by the way, Copenhagen Economics reckons growth in real wages will be held back in the years to come because of Brexit.
So get ready to pay more for goods with less than would have been the case without the UK's divorce from the EU.