Michael McCord from Ulster University says strong demand helps housing market demonstrates continual price growth. He offers background to the latest House Price Index.
How Much Is Your House Worth? compares Q4 2020 and Q4 2021 house prices, measuring annual percentage change on a rolling quarterly basis.
The analysis is based on 8,599 sales (5,089 in Q4 2020 and 3,501 in Q4 2021, using sales evidence from propertynews.com and the Ulster University House Price Index, produced in partnership with the Progressive Building Society and the Northern Ireland Housing Executive.
The sales information is spatially joined to enable the accurate location of the recorded sales transactions for all levels of the spatial reporting used within the analysis.
Statistics indicate that 2021 was the busiest year in recent memory for Northern Ireland’s housing market.
Looking at a market overview, it was previously reported no correction in house prices was envisaged due to increasing pressures emerging within the housing market – for example, the inelasticity of supply and reduction of quality product being listed.
This has remained the case with the residential housing market in Northern Ireland continuing to show annual price growth of 7.8% between Q4 2020 and Q4 2021, underpinned by consumer confidence in the industry and significant demand signals.
That said, the level of annual price performance is lower than previous reports, which suggests a slowing down of price growth.
Furthermore, the market faces increasing challenges, for example, soaring inflation, which will invariably have a knock-on effect on mortgage lending and interest rates.
At county level, price statistics reflect variable increases relative to Q4 2020.
Counties Fermanagh and Armagh, followed by Down, record the largest price changes over the year of 13.6%, 12.6% and 11.7% respectively.
Counties Antrim and Tyrone display more modest growth of 5.3% and 7.4%/
Co Londonderry is the only market area which has experienced a slight erosion as regards price change, of 6%. Looking in more depth, this change is due to an increased level of transactions occurring the in £100,000 to £150,000 price bracket.
Michael McCord is a lecturer in property market research at Ulster University