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Governments must be flexible to avoid Brexit disaster, economist warns

Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs Expand

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Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs

Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs

Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs

By Brett Campbell

A leading Irish economist has warned that "we are 100 days away from disaster" if a solution to the Irish backstop is not found.

Dan O'Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, also claimed the Irish Government and EU have miscalculated their approach to the controversial customs issue.

He said it was a mistake for negotiators to put the issue on the table in the first place.

"It was always my view that the British political system would simply not be able to digest what's in the backstop," Mr O'Brien said.

"If you put something on the negotiating table that you know your opposite number can't digest, you increase the risk that everyone walks away with no deal."

He said there is now a real risk that the very thing the backstop arrangement is trying to prevent will come to pass.

"We need to think about it again," he said. "We are now facing a disaster, we are 100 days from a disaster, and we need to start looking at alternatives."

Speaking on Radio Ulster yesterday, the commentator said if neither side adapts its position "we will have a hard border" in Ireland. Mr O'Brien suggested three alternatives, including his call for a Northern Ireland-only referendum for the people to decide the way forward.

He asked: "Do they want to be part of the UK customs territory or the EU customs territory?" While he did acknowledged the "toxic and divisive" nature of such a poll, he also said a no-deal Brexit would produce the same outcome and lead to "deterioration" in the "relationship between the two communities".

Mr O'Brien also suggested the establishment of an alternative toll booth-style "business border" in the Republic which would require the Irish Government to seek legal assurances that Westminster would not conduct similar checks of goods in Northern Ireland.

A third alternative he proposed is for Dublin to seize upon "a power vacuum" left by the absence of influence from Brussels and seek a "bigger role" in the governance of Northern Ireland.

See Business Telegraph, page 12

Belfast Telegraph

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