Only 3% believe Northern Ireland will return to Troubles-era violence

The Shankill bomb

By Liam Clarke

October 01 2014 12:48 AM

Virtually nobody in Northern Ireland believes the country will return to violence – but there is little expectation of a more stable future.

Respondents were asked what future they expected for Northern Ireland in 10 years' time and given five options to choose from. Only 3% believed there would be a return to Troubles-era violence by 2024.

This was so close to the margin of error (2.9%) that it is negligible. When we asked exactly the same question at around the same time last year, more than four times as many people (13.1%) feared a return to the Troubles.

We asked a different but related question in our youth survey in April of this year. Then only 28% thought there was peace now, with 65.3% who believed we were not at peace. If the stronger term "Troubles-era violence" had been used it is likely that the total would have fallen, but it was still noticeably high compared to 2.4% of 18 to 24-years-old in the current poll who thought a return to violence was likely.

The most likely explanation for the year on year fall from 13.1% to 3% is that we have had a peaceful marching season and there have been less successful paramilitary attacks. In September last year the situation looked far more serious after months of flags protests and an Ardoyne stand-off. This April, when the youth poll was taken, trouble over the summer was widely predicted.

This year the proportion actually expecting a more stable and peaceful society was less than one in five (18.8%). But even that relatively low figure was a slight improvement on last year's total of 14%. Another 20% thought nothing much would change, down from 30% last year.

It also stands out that 45.3% of people didn't expect things to improve, and of these 25% expected them to get worse and 20% expected no change.

This is a depressing figure.

However, last year the percentage expecting no improvement was higher at 62%. Since people were only allowed to choose one statement it is likely that most of the 3% expected a return to violence also expected economic decline.

As it was, 17% expected economic decline this year compared to 19% last year, a slight improvement in morale. Economic growth was expected by 15.8%, up on 8% last year.

To put the feelgood factor in perspective, pessimism about the future was highest amongst the top AB social class, which is made up of managers and professionals. Between a quarter and a third of this group (29%) predicted economic decline and 20% didn't know what to expect.

Only 11.5% anticipated growth. This is the group of people, which includes experts like accountants and senior civil servants, so is the most likely to have oversight of economic activity.

In terms of age group, the young were most pessimistic about the economy with only one in 12 (8.3%) expecting things to improve over the next decade.

"I'm getting out, there is no hope here" said one young person who was amongst the 20.5% of 18 to 24-year-olds who thought economic decline would be the main outcome of the coming decade.

When we surveyed 16 to 24-year-olds last March, only a third (32.5%) expected to make their future in Northern Ireland.

Belfast Telegraph