exclusive Revealed: DUP support plunges behind TUV and UUP in shock new poll

While the DUP is relegated to being the third largest unionist party, Sinn Fein has opened up a 12% points lead on its partner in government with Michelle O’Neill well on course to become First Minister next May.

Sinn Fein has consolidated its position on 25%, making it comfortably Northern Ireland’s largest party. On 13%, the SDLP is up one point from our poll three months ago, but is failing to make significant inroads into Sinn Fein support.

Alliance is down three points to 13% as Mr Beattie wins back unionist voters who had migrated to Naomi Long’s party.

The UUP has risen four points since he became leader, and the TUV has seen similar sweeping success. It’s up three points since May as hardline unionists continue to defect from the DUP amidst ongoing anger over the protocol.

Some 58% of DUP voters at the last Assembly election now say they will support another party next time round with more than a third opting for Mr Allister’s.

TUV support has increased more than five-fold since the last Stormont poll, and it could win at least half a dozen seats if the pattern is replicated in next year’s election.

This year has seen the DUP fall to new lows in successive polls. The party, which secured a 31% vote in the December 2019 Westminster election, was on 19% in Lucidtalk’s January survey.

That increased pressure on Arlene Foster’s leadership and strengthened her internal opponents. She was toppled in April but the party fell further and was on just 16% immediately after Edwin Poots took up the reins.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has so far failed to steady the ship with the DUP on 13%, tying with the SDLP and Alliance as only the fourth largest party. The poll will make DUP MLAs increasingly nervous as many could face losing their jobs in eight months’ time.

However, Sir Jeffrey’s leadership remains secure. His personal rating in the poll is much worse than Mr Beattie’s and Mr Allister’s, but on -27, it’s still better than Mr Poots -52 in May.

With the summer break, the new DUP leader hasn’t yet had a chance to stamp his mark on the party, and he will be hoping to start reversing its downward spiral in the autumn.

The online survey of 2,403 people was carried out from August 20 to 23. It was weighted to reflect the local population.

The most popular politician in Northern Ireland remains Health Minister Robin Swann with 75% of people saying he’s doing a great or good job. He’s followed by Mr Beattie whom 44% rated in the same vein.

Mrs Long came third on 38% followed by Colum Eastwood (34%) and Mr Allister (33%). Ms O’Neill is still not overly impressing voters – 29% rated her performance as great or good - but she was ahead of Sir Jeffrey on 20%.

The least popular politician was First Minister Paul Givan who was viewed as great or good by only 12%. He took up the role just two months ago and the fact that 40% of people said they couldn’t rate him, or were neutral, suggests the jury remains out on the DUP man.

Some 47% scored Sir Jeffrey as bad or awful, including 28% of unionists. Just 20% of unionists viewed Doug Beattie, and 22% Jim Allister, the same way.

Michelle O’Neill was rated bad or awful by 45% of voters, including 70% of unionists. But fewer nationalists scored her negatively (17%) than Colum Eastwood (25%)

While 55% of Alliance and Green voters rated Sir Jeffrey as bad or awful, only a third said the same of Ms O’Neill, suggesting Sinn Fein will be more transfer friendly than the DUP among this group in May.

Mrs Long continues to score poorly with unionists – 55% viewed her as bad or awful compared to 20% of nationalists. Surprisingly, among Alliance and Green voters, more saw her negatively (14%) than Mr Beattie (13%)

Mr Allister was the unionist politician viewed most negatively (82%) by nationalists, and Mr Beattie the least (30%). The TUV leader was also the one rated most negatively by Alliance and Green voters (72%).

The politician with the worst rating among Northern Ireland voters is Secretary of State Brandon Lewis. Some 77% said he was bad or awful, and just 4% good or great.

A close runner-up was Prime Minister Boris Johnson with 79% rating him negatively, and 9% positively.

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