Business and employers’ group Ibec has warned that the Government’s “conservative” approach to lifting Covid-19 restrictions will prolong the economic downturn.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) meets on Thursday to discuss the road map for reopening the country.
The Government’s five-stage approach to easing the lockdown will keep many of the restrictions in place until August 10.
From Monday, small retail outlets can reopen with a small number of staff provided the retailer can control the number of customers that enter the store.
Early signs in other economies are that consumer fear of the virus and ongoing social distancing will play a major role along the path to demand normalisationGerard Brady, Ibec chief economist
People who can work safely while maintaining a two-metre distance from others will be able to return to work.
Ibec said in its latest quarterly update that the Government was reopening the economy at a slower pace than in other countries and this would result in a higher rate of unemployment and a larger budget deficit by the end of the year.
“The length of the lockdown in Ireland, including a more conservative pace to reopening of the economy than our peers, will help determine the scale of the fall in economic activity.
“If we plan to have a significantly longer lockdown than most developed countries then we cannot, at the same time, plan to run a deficit which is at the lower end of that same group of countries unless we are providing lower relative supports for businesses.”
12/ Finally, if a longer lockdown is necessary, it means a bigger deficit or less support. Government can do any 2 of the 3 things on the triangle but it canât do all three. There is no good option here, all that awaits us is trade-offs. We need to find a way of teasing them out. pic.twitter.com/jIE6enPqqC— Gerard Brady (@GerardBrady100) June 4, 2020
Ibec chief economist Gerard Brady claimed the country is experiencing “the sharpest compression of economic activity in living memory”.
He said: “Whilst many of the collapsing economic figures presented in this report are the result of necessary public health decisions, their impacts on incomes and balance sheets are no less real.
“The recent road map published by government gives welcome clarity on when sectors may expect to be allowed reopen again, but it is also clear that normal conditions will not return for some time.
“Contrary to early hopes, the public health and economic crises’ will not be temporary and will last well into 2021.
“Early signs in other economies are that consumer fear of the virus and ongoing social distancing will play a major role along the path to demand normalisation.
“We now have to accept that the impact of living with the virus is likely to last a year or more.”
Meanwhile, Labour leader Alan Kelly has called for a number of phases to be brought forward to help open up society and the economy.
Mr Kelly has also supported calls for the travel restrictions to be lifted by June 29.
Speaking outside Leinster House he said: “I don’t believe that we have to be as rigid as we are.
“The fact is that you have to move with what we’re seeing and I honestly believe that the public in many cases are ahead of the politicians on this.
“If you look at some of the behaviours, by and large the majority of people are behaving in a certain way.
“I think they’re ahead of the politicians in relation to where they want to go now as a society and I think that means we should bring (the roadmap) forward.
“I believe there are some aspects in phase four that can be brought to phase three or two, or maybe aspects of phase five that can come to phase four.
“Irish society has conditioned itself in relation to Covid and how we all behave in relation to cleanliness, in relation to our hygiene, in relation to absolutely all their etiquette, in every way.
“That’s why people are more confident and possibly getting ahead of everybody else.”