Brexit Party snapping at Tories’ heels in latest general election poll
The Opinium survey of voting intentions shows Nigel Farage’s party one point behind the Conservatives
The Brexit Party is snapping at the Tories’ heels in latest general election poll.
Nigel Farage’s party is one point behind the Conservatives in a survey of voting intentions for the next Westminster poll.
Labour is out in front with 28% support, followed by the Tories on 22%, the Opinium survey shows, but the Brexit Party is on 21%.
The fact a party that is less than six months old is now vying with the governing party for second place is remarkable Opinium
Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium said it was “remarkable” the new party could be on the cusp of overtaking the party of government.
Although Mr Drummond cautioned the European election in less than two weeks could be “bleeding into” and “inflating” the Westminster results, the level of support was still notable.
He said: “It would be reasonable to assume that this would fall back in an actual general election campaign, but the fact a party that is less than six months old is now vying with the governing party for second place is remarkable.
“The Tories’ reliance on Leave voters seemed sensible in the aftermath of the referendum.
“But raising expectations of the kind of deal the UK could get and using the phrase ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ so relentlessly was always going to open the party up to this kind of challenge once those expectations could not be met.”
The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, continue to drop votes, with Labour falling five points and the Tories four in the last fortnight.
But the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats are reaping the rewards of public frustration and are both on the up, with the former rising five points and the latter four – taking the Lib Dems to fourth place with 11 points.
When it comes to the European elections, the Brexit Party is galloping ahead into first place with 34% support – doubling the existing gap to 13 points.
Labour, coming second with 21%, has fallen seven points in the last fortnight and the Lib Dems are in third position with 12%, having risen five points.
The Tories have dropped another three points to stagger into fourth place with 11% support.
Mr Drummond said Remainers were split on which party to support and 57% would like to see a pro-Remain alliance.
On the European elections, while the question of which party Brexit voters should back was settled some time ago, the equivalent for Remain voters is still ambiguous Opinium
He said: “On the European elections, while the question of which party Brexit voters should back was settled some time ago, the equivalent for Remain voters is still ambiguous.
“The picture is most stark when we split out Leave and Remain voters – while 63% of Leavers say they will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, the most popular party among Remainers (still Labour) only has 31% versus 22% for the Lib Dems and 14% for the Greens.
“Interestingly, Brexit voters have deserted the Tories to such an extent that the Conservatives actually have a higher share of the European vote among Remainers (12%) than among Leavers (11%).”
Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,004 UK adults over 18 years old between May 8 and 10 and results have been weighted.