Constituency profile: Moray
A top target for the SNP – and a big test for the Tories.
The Conservatives are defending 13 seats in Scotland and every one is potentially at risk from a resurgent SNP – especially Moray, which Boris Johnson visited on Thursday.
Moray was held by the SNP continuously from 1987 until 2017.
The Tories gained the constituency in 2017 on a massive 13.6% swing, in the process defeating Angus Robertson, one of the SNP’s most well-known MPs.
At the 2019 election the SNP will be determined to take back what used to be one of their core seats.
Tory candidate Douglas Ross is defending a 4,159 majority.
The SNP need a swing of 4.4% to defeat him.
A swing of this size, were it repeated across Scotland, could see at least six Conservative seats fall to the SNP.
Every area of Scotland voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum – but Moray saw one of the narrowest votes of all.
The result was 50.1% Remain, 49.9% Leave.
If opinions in the constituency are still as finely balanced as this, Brexit could be just as much of a factor in deciding the election result as other issues such as Scottish independence.