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Labour facing electoral wipeout in Scotland, poll suggests

The SNP are predicted to jump to 41 seats, according to the poll, with the Lib Dems moving up to five and the Tories expected to drop to 12.

The poll suggests the only Labour MP in Scotland after December 12 will be Ian Murray (Joe Giddens/PA)
The poll suggests the only Labour MP in Scotland after December 12 will be Ian Murray (Joe Giddens/PA)

By Craig Paton, PA Scotland Political Reporter

Labour is set to lose all but one of its seats in Scotland, according to a new poll.

The Panelbase study for the Sunday Times suggested that only Ian Murray will be returned to the House of Commons.

Mr Murray, a frequent critic of leader Jeremy Corbyn, was the sole Labour MP north of the border in 2015.

The poll, which surveyed 1,009 people in Scotland, found that support for the Labour Party in Scotland could dip from 27% to 20%.

According to analysis from Strathclyde University Professor Sir John Curtice, the SNP are also on course for another electoral win in Scotland, seeing their seat count rise from 35 to 41 after December 12 if there is a uniform swing across Scotland, with support rising from 37% to 40%.

According to the poll, Scotland’s ruling party could lose North East Fife, the seat with the smallest majority in the UK, with Stephen Gethins holding just two more votes over his Liberal Democrat rival in 2017.

The First Minister was on the campaign trail with Mr Gethins on Saturday in his constituency.

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North East Fife MP Stephen Gethins is projected to lose his seat in the new poll (Jane Barlow/PA)

The poll has the seat being won by the Lib Dems, taking the party’s Scottish total to five, while overall support will rise from 7% to 11%.

The Conservatives are expected to lose just one seat in Scotland, with Stirling predicted to move from Stephen Kerr to SNP MEP Alyn Smith.

If the poll is found to be correct, the party’s support will also drop by one percentage point, to 28%.

The poll found the First Minister to be the only leader with a positive approval rating at +3%.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s popularity rose slightly from -36% to -34%, while the Labour leader also improved but still found himself trailing the Tory leader on -41%.

On the issues voters believe to be harmful to the UK, 37% of Scots said Scottish independence, with 39% saying the same of Brexit.

Almost half of all those surveyed said Scottish independence would be a “good opportunity” for the country, at 45%, while just 24% said the same of Brexit.

Responding to the poll Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s deputy Westminster leader, said: “Only the SNP can beat the Tories in Scotland.

“While we take nothing for granted, the SNP are in a strong position – and we’re well and truly the party with the momentum.

“This poll underlines the fact that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems can take seats off the Tories.

“Boris Johnson is desperate to get a majority, force through a disastrous Brexit and inflict yet more years of Tory misery on Scotland.

“The only way to stop him is to unite around the SNP and help lock him out of Downing Street.”

Mr Kerr said: “We welcome today’s poll.

“It confirms that, in seat after seat in Scotland, it’s only by voting Scottish Conservative that people can stop Nicola Sturgeon and make her listen.

“By contrast, the poll shows that Labour is going nowhere in Scotland and that it now risks being completely wiped out.

“So our message to Labour and Liberal voters today is to lend us your vote so together we can beat the SNP.

“We did it two years ago – let’s do it again.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat campaign chairman Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP said: “This poll shows that the Lib Dems are a growing force in Scotland.

“Everyone who is pro-EU and pro-UK should vote for us on December 12.”

PA

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