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Scotland to eventually split from the UK, says survey

By Mark McLaughlin

A majority of people across the UK believe that Scotland will be independent within the next decade, a poll suggests.

Just over half (52%) of people in Scotland and nearly three-fifths (59%) of people in England think the UK will split by 2025, a Survation poll for think tank British Future found.

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Scots think the new UK Government needs to hand more powers to the nations and regions, but nearly half of people in England (48%) say Scotland should not be offered any more powers, according to the poll of 3,977 UK adults, including 1,056 in Scotland, between May 8-14.

Three-fifths of Scots say independence is unlikely within the term of the current Parliament, with only a third predicting separation in the next five years.

But the vast majority of people in Scotland (72%) say the nation will be independent by 2040, giving Nicola Sturgeon the opportunity to "play the long game" of securing independence in a generation, British Future said.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: "It's interesting that Scotland is split pretty much down the middle on whether independence will happen, even within a decade, while more people in England think it's already lost.

"This fits with Nicola Sturgeon's pragmatic, gradualist approach and reluctance to call a quick referendum.

"David Cameron has more work to do with the English. Some doubt that the Union can be saved and while only a minority are against Scotland getting more powers, he will have to persuade the undecideds that it's worth his time and energy."

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