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Tory lead in Wales wiped out in poll predicting Labour to win majority of seats

The findings are from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll and put Labour on 44%, up from the 35%.

The Labour Party is fighting back in Wales and is predicted to win the majority of seats there after overtaking the Tories for the first time since the snap General Election was called, according to a new poll.

The 10% and 6% lead Theresa May’s Conservatives had in two previous polls, which led to predictions of a historic triumph, has been wiped out after a resurgence of support for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party in the last two weeks.

The findings are from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll and put Labour on 44%, up from the 35% it was predicted on May 8.

(PA graphic)

The Conservatives are now on 34% (down 7%); Plaid Cymru on 9% (down 2%); Liberal Democrats on 6% (down 1%); Ukip on 5% (up 1%) and others 3% (up 1%).

Professor Roger Scully, from the University of Cardiff, said the results were broadly in line with the Britain-wide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days.

He said: “The extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.”

Prof Scully said things looked very different compared to the centre’s previous two polls that suggested the Conservatives were on course to win a number of seats from Labour.

(PA graphic)

In April the first Welsh Political Barometer poll predicted the Conservatives could almost double their number of MPs in Wales, taking 21 to Labour’s 15.

Based on the latest poll results Labour are now predicted to win 26 of the country’s 40 seats – an increase of plus one on its total in the 2015 general election.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are predicted to take 10 seats ( down1); Plaid Cymru three seats (no change) and the Liberal Democrats one seat (no change).

He added: “Things now look very different on these latest figures.

(PA graphic)

“Only a single seat is now projected to change from the 2015 result – with Gower reverting to Labour, after being very narrowly gained by the Conservatives two years ago.”

Gower is currently held by Conservative Byron Davies on the country’s slimmest majority. He ended more than 100 years of Labour control when he took the seat, beating his Labour opponent by just 27 votes.

The Welsh figures come after a series of UK-wide opinion polls showed a sharp fall in the Tories’ lead over Labour since the parties published their manifestos last week.

Four polls for the Sunday newspapers put Labour between 35% and 33%, up significantly on the scores as low as 26% it was recording early in the campaign, while the Survation survey for ITV’s Good Morning Britain showed the Conservatives on 43% – down five points on the previous week and nine points ahead of Labour which was up five on 34%.

Prof Scully said the latest poll in Wales was carried out in the immediate aftermath of the death of former Welsh first minister Rhodri Morgan and there may have been a short-term “sympathy boost for Labour”.


From Belfast Telegraph