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Warmer than average summer likely, says Met Office

But the forecaster said its long-range outlook does not imply a three-month heatwave.

Summer is likely to be warmer than average, the Met Office has said (Andrew Matthews/PA)
Summer is likely to be warmer than average, the Met Office has said (Andrew Matthews/PA)

Britain is likely to enjoy warmer and drier than average conditions this summer, but the Met Office has cautioned against reports of a three-month heatwave.

Despite the positive prediction, there could still be daily and weekly changes throughout June, July and August, the forecasting service said.

The Met Office has released the long-range outlook as a kind of risk assessment to allow contingency planning for potential emergency weather conditions.

Jeff Knight, manager of modelling of climate variability at the Met Office, said: “Our long term outlook for the summer suggests a greater chance that temperatures will be above average, than below average.

“However, our outlook certainly doesn’t imply a three-month heatwave. As always with our climate, there are likely to be large day-to-day and week-to-week variations over the period.

“This is an outlook for the general themes over the summer and does not give detailed guidance on events like heatwaves.”

Daytime temperatures only need to rise above 18.6C (65F) to exceed the average maximum summer daytime temperature in the UK, while the overall mean summer temperature is 14.4C (58F).

Following sunny conditions in recent times, an area of low pressure coming in from the Atlantic is set to bring gale force winds and rain to parts of the UK mid-week.

Northern Ireland, western Scotland and northern England are likely to be hit by the strongest winds of around 35-45 knots (40-52 miles per hour).

Such a change in conditions proves how changeable British weather can be, said Met Office spokesman Grahame Madge.

He said: “That will be a contrast compared to the conditions that we’ve had.

“I’m not saying that we’re not going to go back to the warmer and drier period of weather, but it does really prove the point that our weather, when you look at the climate, it is sort of an average of all that mix of weather that we would expect across any one month or season.”

The change is good news for hay fever sufferers, as the wet and windy weather will help to lower pollen levels.

Press Association


From Belfast Telegraph