Esmond Birnie Opinion Hard choices to be faced after NI election

It is commonplace to say that elections in Northern Ireland prioritise constitutional issues over so-called bread and butter ones.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion Is Brexit protocol really helping Northern Ireland economy? It’s much too early to say

Years ago, someone said trying to manage a modern economy is a bit like trying to drive the car when both the front and rear windows are covered over.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion A lesson from history the shows faith need not be at loggerheads with medical science

I’m someone who works with numbers and statistics. I’m also a Christian. I therefore find it distressing that some people in Northern Ireland have claimed there is a faith-based case against Covid vaccination.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion Our economy needs recuperation, not a constitutional shock

US President Harry Truman once said, "How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt?" Usefully, the Kantar/Belfast Telegraph poll includes some of the practicalities, such as cash and healthcare.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion There’s no silver bullet for NI’s economic problems, but tax powers would help

Many might be inclined to agree with what Winston Churchill wrote in 1937: “There is no such thing as a good tax”.

Outlook 2021: Shocks to continue into 2021

The shocks that the NI economy has faced in 2020 and will continue to loom large in 2021 vindicate John Kenneth Galbraith’s quip that economic forecasting exists merely to make astrology look intellectually respectable.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion Pay freeze will hit Northern Ireland hard, but boosted defence spend may be boon

Almost 40 years ago Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said: "Pennies don't fall from Heaven, they must be earned here on Earth."

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Esmond Birnie Opinion Economic consequences for NI after US presidential election are significant

Whether Trump or Biden there will be significant economic consequences for us. Here are some scenarios:

Esmond Birnie Opinion Whatever the result, the US will continue to play a key role in our economy

Biden or Trump, Northern Ireland's relationship with the US will remain important economically, even though America may continue to suffer an economic decline relative to China.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion Second quarter saw a record NI downturn, but what recovery awaits in next set of results?

In terms of data from the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) - which goes back to 2006 - the decline in the second quarter of 2020 was a record.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion What our priorities must be to promote a recovery

Now we know. The UK has had a recession and Northern Ireland is in the same boat.

Dr Esmond Birnie Opinion The March 2020 lockdown was justified, but we must protect the economy from a second one

Sometimes we face agonising dilemmas between terrible alternatives. We should try to avoid getting into such situations. In the UK at present we should avoid an uncontrolled second wave of Covid-19 which kills tens of thousands and also a second general lockdown knocking billions off the economy.

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Esmond Birnie Opinion Chancellor driven by spectre of youth unemployment

Every recession, including this one, is unique. For some of us, however, this does feel like back to the 1980s, which was the last time that mass unemployment loomed, especially for the young.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Coronavirus casts dark shadow over Northern Ireland economy with risk of another prolonged recession and a badly damaged labour market

Yesterday the Office for National Statistics provided some of the first official, statistical confirmation that the UK, including Northern Ireland, is in the early stages of what will be a very deep recession.

Esmond Birnie Opinion We should expect a different world on the other side of coronavirus pandemic

The immediate priority is obviously to get through this health crisis, but what sort of world may appear on the other side?

Dr Esmond Birnie Opinion Budget's short-term fixes ignore clouds on horizon for Northern Ireland

It is hard not to feel a little sorry for the Finance Minister, given the challenge of drafting a Northern Ireland Budget for 2020-21.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Government response is now critical to stop Northern Ireland economy from heading in downward spiral

These are unprecedented, uncertain times as the virus and its impact spreads. It might be objected that compared to matters of life and death, the economy is very much a secondary issue.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Chancellor does little to close gap between Executive's aspirations and its resources

At least in upfront terms, new Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered a good Budget for smokers, drinkers, those on National Living Wage, car owners and farm users of red diesel.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Expect a downbeat Budget report for growth prospects in Northern Ireland

Wednesday's Budget may be something of a holding affair. Expect further "fiscal action" in November.

Dr Esmond Birnie Opinion Options limited as restored Stormont has aspirations far in excess of cash resources

It is understandable that the Finance Minister feels he must try again to get some more money from HM Treasury.

Dr Esmond Birnie Opinion Cash-strapped Executive facing some very tough choices on revenue-raising

"Money, money, money, must be funny, in the rich man's world." So sang Abba. Members of the Northern Ireland Executive probably don't feel the current money situation is at all funny.

Dr Esmond Birnie Opinion Scrutinising Northern Ireland's sizeable fiscal deficit is interesting

Tucked away, five days before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the 2018-19 data on the fiscal transfers. That is, for each of the 12 major UK regions how did the sum of money raised through taxes in that region compare to the level of public spending which benefits that region? In other words, which regions get more out of the UK exchequer than they put in?

Esmond Birnie Opinion Bombardier news helps increase certainty for the local workforce

After several trying years and repeated rounds of job losses, some good news relating to Northern Ireland's largest aircraft manufacturing firm Bombardier, now becoming Spirit AeroSystems.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Devil is in the detail regarding how we'll fare when the UK goes it alone after Brexit

At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. So Jawaharlal Nehru - the first Prime Minister of his country - said about independence in 1947.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Stormont funding a case of crumbs, welcome though they are, moving from plate to plate

We've had a number of stories recently regarding funding public spending in Northern Ireland. Yesterday's announcement of the results of January monitoring is a much smaller, less dramatic affair but still significant.

Esmond Birnie Opinion How Stormont could raise money to fund public services

Practically the only tax the Assembly currently controls which could be used to raise more revenue is the Regional Rate.

Big decisions to be made in a glass half-full or half-empty situation

The UK government financial package for Stormont, as finally published on Wednesday evening, represents a glass half full or half empty situation.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Extra cash will inevitably come with the price tag of accountability and control

It wasn't just Storm Brendan which stormed into Northern Ireland yesterday morning. The Prime Minister came to celebrate and congratulate regarding Saturday's restoration of devolution.

Dr Esmond Birnie Opinion Reaching deal is only the beginning for any new Executive

Deal or no deal it remains to be seen.

Esmond Birnie Opinion Devolution not guaranteed to boost Northern Ireland economy

In terms of the growth of the Northern Ireland economy in 2020 and the rest of the decade, there are some things we can say with a fair degree of confidence.