Potential risk to peace and stability if Brexit issues are not resolved

Responsible for the murders of more than 500 people, it has been under the same leadership for over 40 years.

Those in charge steered it through the peace negotiations and the ceasefires. As the most united of the groups, it also has the largest membership.

In March the PSNI said it believed the UVF hijacked an electrician’s van forcing him to drive a hoax bomb to an event in Ardoyne attended by Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney.

This attack would have been sanctioned by the leadership of the terror group, and was considered a worrying escalation in opposition to the Irish Sea border.

Sources say without movement on the protocol they expect further UVF actions.

The security assessment is the UVF has thousands of members, and while many are dormant, it retains access to weapons and explosives, some of which were held back from decommissioning.

In addition, a significant cache of weapons brought in by Ulster Resistance, including AK47s and RPG rocket launchers, is now in UVF hands.

While there is no suggestion there is an appetite to “go back to war”, the anti-protocol campaign has given loyalists a cause to unite behind.

“Veteran members are reluctant travellers in the remilitarisation of the organisation, but nevertheless they are willing to do whatever is necessary,” said one source.

In the years after the peace process the UDA fractured due to internal feuds.

It is now made up of separate ‘battalions’, each with hundreds of men, and has access to weapons, although the quantity and age is unclear.

The most militant faction in West Belfast retains the same leadership that was in charge at the height of its terrorist campaign in the Eighties and Nineties, albeit without the exiled Johnny Adair.

In recent years the UDA in North Antrim has used weapons in vigilante-style attacks. It is mainly made up of younger members recruited during in the last 15 years.

The East Belfast UDA is one of the largest factions, with hundreds of members, and while it has disengaged from cross-community work in recent years, there is no suggestion it poses a national security risk.

The South Belfast UDA is the most advanced in terms of the journey from paramilitarism to peace. Members engage with peace building programmes, the leadership poses no threat to peace, and it no longer recruits.

The South East Antrim UDA is considered an organised crime gang with a significant number of members, but has almost no political ideology.

The summer months can always pose a potential risk to peace and stability. Sources say that old parading disputes could be reignited in order to create chaos and public order issues should the protocol issue remain unresolved.

In the early days of Brexit it was dissident republicans who were considered a threat to peace should there be border infrastructure in Ireland.

The sale of three PSNI stations close to the frontier was delayed, with speculation they would be used as Customs posts.

The group Oglaigh na hEireann did originally have a significant membership of former Provos in Co Louth. It called a ceasefire but did not decommission any weapons.

The Continuity IRA had a small resurgence in Fermanagh, Cavan and Monaghan. It was behind a number of security alerts on the Fermanagh border.

Its membership is limited and it’s unlikely they would be able to mount major attacks.

The New IRA is the largest of the dissident groups, but its power base is limited to part of Derry city, a small collection of well-known republicans in Belfast, and some veteran members in Co Armagh.

It has been heavily infiltrated by MI5 and PSNI intelligence and has lost possession of the majority of its weapons in recent years.

There are no dissident groups with the capability of making the huge bombs used by the Provisional IRA in its campaign.