Jon Tonge

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald and Sinn Fein northern leader Michelle O'Neill. Credit: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

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Jon Tonge Opinion Shrewd, gaffe-free Sinn Fein campaign ensures the DUP has lost its crown

Sometimes the predictable can be truly dramatic.

Jim Allister. Credit: Colm Lenaghan/Pacemaker Pic Colm Lenaghan/ Pacemaker

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Jon Tonge Opinion Outside of big two, Alliance and TUV look set to make gains if polling proves accurate

Beyond the DUP versus Sinn Fein headlines, who is doing best of the rest in the LucidTalk-Belfast Telegraph poll?

Countdown: What surprise, if any, will the ballot box bring next month? Credit: Getty Images

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Jon Tonge Opinion NI Assembly election 2022 is a battle of the least seat losses

Only the brave should forecast what will happen at the Assembly election. Only the most foolish might try and predict exactly where the drama will occur. But soothsaying is too difficult to resist. And if you call the outcome in all 18 constituencies there is an outside chance you might manage at least one or two correct predictions.

Hats off: To their credit, universities have worked hard on allowing students to enjoy graduation. Credit: Getty Images

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Jon Tonge Opinion Universities fail to make the grade on tackling outdated traditions

For institutions supposedly containing clever and innovative people, universities are sometimes strangely conservative places. We sometimes stick to outdated practices even when they are clearly in need of overhaul. To benefit not just the current cohort of 66,000 students at Northern Ireland’s universities (2.75 million across the UK) here are a few suggestions for change.

Alliance leader Naomi Long. Credit: Declan Roughan/Press Eye

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Jon Tonge Opinion Alliance on course to be third biggest party in the NI Executive

So beyond the big two parties, who wins on the election undercard?

Restrictions: Boris Johnson was criticised as being ‘reckless’ for England’s ‘Freedom Day’

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Jon Tonge Opinion Doomsayers need to accept consensus, otherwise they’re as bad as anti-vaxxers

After 170,000 deaths with Covid across Britain and Ireland, with more than 3,000 locally, how should we treat the recent rise of cases? With caution but reason, hopefully. The virus has produced numbs, dumbs and glums. Numbs are anti-vaxxers spouting conspiratorial nonsense. Dumbs are Downing Street party types, thinking themselves above laws they set. But what of glums, making a grim pandemic worse by dire predictions?

Lone voice: TUV leader Jim Allister. Credit: Brian Lawless/PA

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Jon Tonge Opinion Will Jim Allister continue to go solo in final chance to realign unionism?

Traditional Unionist Voices will be raised today in Cookstown as Jim Allister’s party gathers for its annual conference.

Party leader Naomi Long. Credit: Jonathan Porter / Press Eye

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Jon Tonge Opinion Will Alliance’s moderate politics become a big deal in May?

As the Party Alliance gathers in Belfast today for its annual conference, how excited should attendees be for the looming date with the voters?

Obstacles: SDLP leader Colum Eastwood and party colleague Nichola Mallon

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Jon Tonge Opinion SDLP and Sinn Fein could swap unity manifestos and no one would notice

The SDLP gathers in Bellaghy for its annual conference tomorrow, just 74 days before a tough Assembly election. Amid the fevered focus on whether Sinn Fein becomes the largest party and provides the First Minister — assuming an Executive can somehow be formed — what can Colum Eastwood do to improve his party’s fortunes?

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said protocol issues have not been addressed (Peter Morrison/PA)

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Jon Tonge Opinion Gambling with future of NI politics will never pay off

To think that gambling used to be frowned upon by the DUP. The party has now bet big on Collapse in the Protocol Stakes. Given that gamblers win only one in seven times this is a big call.

Asset: SDLP leader Colm Eastwood has made very few bad calls. Credit: Liam McBurney

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Jon Tonge Opinion Will consistency help SDLP and Alliance prevent SF getting top job?

Is there a political party anywhere polling as consistently as the SDLP? The party’s percentage scores since the last Assembly performance, 12% of the vote, have been 13, 13, 12, 13, 12 and now 11 in Saturday’s Lucid Talk survey.

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Jon Tonge Opinion Stormont is more parish council than 21st century parliament

Most of the Assembly focus over the next few months will be on the sizes of its parties after the big election battle this May. Yet there are deeper questions which need considering. When, if ever, is the Assembly going to gain more powers? And why is the Assembly now, by some distance, the weakest of the three devolved institutions representing the countries of the UK?

Tough task: you can’t get a bus before 7am on a Saturday from Belfast City Centre. Credit: Liam McBurney

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Jon Tonge Opinion Toasters, Translink and footy tops: the things I won’t miss from 2021

The last column of the year. End of term. Final university class taught. Essays marked. Drinks bought for the students. Financial meltdown. Enjoy the break. You might as well. Your Assembly election campaign starts on January 4.

Pressure: Boris Johnson during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons this week. Credit: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/PA

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Jon Tonge Opinion If Boris survives the current crisis, don’t bet against a second term

This weekend marks two years since Boris Johnson’s stunning General Election victory. Downing Street party, perhaps?

Changing times: People react at Dublin Castle after the Republic’s abortion laws are changed. Credit: Brian Lawless/PA

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Jon Tonge Opinion Citizens’ assemblies are a guide to change, not a cure for all our ills

Anyone for a citizens’ assembly? It seems like they are proposed for most things these days. It almost makes me wistful for the days of commissions. That way, issues like flags, identity, culture and tradition could be deliberated safe in the knowledge that nothing will actually happen.

Sir Keir Starmer with former Shadow NI secretary Louise Haigh at Parliament Buildings during a visit to Belfast. Credit: Peter Morrison

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Jon Tonge Opinion Labour policy is to be neutral on NI, but has anyone told Sir Keir?

Sir Keir Starmer, your next Prime Minister? You might not take a short price. But as the polls narrow, a Labour government and Northern Ireland is worthy of thought.

(L-R) Emma Little-Pengelly, Jamie Bryson, Chris Hazzard and Colin McGrath

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Jon Tonge Opinion No consensus on the past, but panel holds out hope for future

To Coventry Cathedral, as Northern Ireland’s centenary year was analysed last week by a panel on “Prospects for Peace 100 years on from the Anglo-Irish Treaty”. The event was part of a Global Peace Forum, organised by Coventry University.

Uphill battle: Doug Beattie on stage at the UUP’s party conference. Credit: Kelvin Boyes

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Jon Tonge Opinion Party politics and the sliding scale of popularity vs personality

Another intriguing poll — we are truly being spoilt. Each brings heated responses, and LucidTalk’s latest offering will be little different.

Unionists: Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, Billy Hutchinson, Doug Beattie and Jim Allister at Parliament Buildings. Credit: Kelvin Boyes / Press Eye

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Jon Tonge Opinion The title fight of FM and DFM… who’ll end up on the canvas?

A student asked me in a seminar this week: “If the parties in Northern Ireland want devolved power-sharing to work, why don’t they just get on with it?” Ah, the touching naivety of youth.

On the up: Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill at a previous ard fheis. Credit: Charles McQuillan

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Jon Tonge Opinion Sinn Fein as top dog, north and south, is almost inevitable… unity isn’t

Sinn Fein gathers in Dublin today for its ard fheis in understandably buoyant mood. The party is on course to become the biggest in both jurisdictions on the island. Recent Belfast Telegraph/LucidTalk polls indicate Sinn Fein is likely to provide the next First Minister.

On the cards: The voucher scheme aims to boost Northern Ireland’s high streets. Credit: Brian Lawless/PA

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Jon Tonge Opinion Voucher scheme is a boost to retail, but can NI ever truly pay its own way?

Spent your £100 voucher yet? I hesitate to spoil the fun, as the high street really needs a break, but the last time I got a three-figure sum for nothing was for passing Go on the Monopoly board. Stormont’s £166m giveaway is set against a long-standing, unresolved question: can Northern Ireland ever pay its way?

Division: protesters against the NI Protocol in Newtownards earlier this year. Credit: Brian Lawless

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Jon Tonge Opinion Despite some movement, Protocol argument is far from over

Customs checks special offer: 50% off. The EU made a significant move this week, albeit one signalled for several months. But as nationalists and others bought in, half a sea border remained very much a sea border for many unionists.

From left, DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, UUP leader Doug Beattie, Jim Allister, (TUV), Kate Hoey and David Trimble. Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA

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Jon Tonge Opinion Why Tories wouldn’t get out of bed to hear unionist fears over Protocol

Hastening through the chill Manchester autumn morning air to the Conservative Party conference this week, I fretted. Would I be in time to secure a seat for Lord Frost’s key address on the Northern Ireland Protocol? Boris Johnson’s leadership address apart, this was the big set-piece speech, surely?

Proposal: from far left Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, Billy Hutchinson, Doug Beattie and Jim Allister at Stormont. Credit: Kelvin Boyes / Press Eye

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Jon Tonge Opinion Why a unionist pact is as likely as a merger of the Blues and the Glens

Unionist pacts, accommodations, alliances, understandings. It wouldn’t be a proper election without such calls, followed by the backlash, would it? But will Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s love-bombing of Doug Beattie and Jim Allister work?

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Jon Tonge Opinion Beattie must show he cares about something other than the NI Protocol

In a fortnight’s time, the Ulster Unionist Party stages its most important conference in the last two decades. When Doug Beattie addresses the ranks, just over 200 days from the scheduled Assembly election, he will do so as the first UUP leader since David Trimble to hold realistic hopes of becoming unionism’s standard-bearer.

Raucous affair: Prime Minister Boris Johnson at a previous Conservative Party conference. Credit: Oli Scarff

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Jon Tonge Opinion Party conferences… dull speeches, foul wine, but great head massages

The party conference season is upon us. I sense your excitement, dear reader. For us political obsessives, such events are as unmissable as they are dreadful.

Survival: Rev Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson at a DUP Press conference at party headquarters in 1979

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Jon Tonge Opinion DUP marks its half-century, but will it still be around in another 50 years?

This month, the DUP celebrates its 50th birthday. That this extraordinary coalition of political unionism and older religious fervour marks its half-century as the biggest Assembly party — for a few more months, anyway — is remarkable.

Heir apparent: Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill during a press conference at Stormont. Credit: Liam McBurney/PA

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Jon Tonge Opinion Sinn Fein set to become NI’s largest political party… by doing nothing

Just 250 days until Michelle O’Neill becomes Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. That’s the unmistakeable forecast from the latest Belfast Telegraph/Lucid Talk poll. Barring a dramatic change in political fortunes, Sinn Fein seems set to become the largest party in a polity it does not want to exist.

Future: Young protesters at the gates of Downing Street after the UK voted to leave the European Union. Credit: Isabel Infantes

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Jon Tonge Opinion Whether it’s right to lower the voting age, the Northern Ireland Assembly should decide

Should 16 and 17 year olds be able to vote in elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly? Their counterparts in Scotland and Wales elect representatives to the devolved parliaments in those countries. Yet Westminster continues to decide the voting age for Stormont contests.

Challenge: Voting is related to levels of interest in politics. Credit: Rui Vieira

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Jon Tonge Opinion Irish unity poll rests in the hands of half-a-million stay-away voters

Hundreds of thousands of people in Northern Ireland are not very interested in politics. Shocking, isn’t it? I’d be redundant if this was contagious.

May 2022

Jon Tonge Opinion Shrewd, gaffe-free Sinn Fein campaign ensures the DUP has lost its crown

April 2022

Jon Tonge Opinion Outside of big two, Alliance and TUV look set to make gains if polling proves accurate

Jon Tonge Opinion NI Assembly election 2022 is a battle of the least seat losses

Jon Tonge Opinion Universities fail to make the grade on tackling outdated traditions

March 2022

Jon Tonge Opinion Alliance on course to be third biggest party in the NI Executive

Jon Tonge Opinion Doomsayers need to accept consensus, otherwise they’re as bad as anti-vaxxers

Jon Tonge Opinion Will Jim Allister continue to go solo in final chance to realign unionism?

Jon Tonge Opinion Will Alliance’s moderate politics become a big deal in May?

February 2022

Jon Tonge Opinion SDLP and Sinn Fein could swap unity manifestos and no one would notice

Jon Tonge Opinion Gambling with future of NI politics will never pay off

January 2022

Jon Tonge Opinion Will consistency help SDLP and Alliance prevent SF getting top job?

Jon Tonge Opinion Stormont is more parish council than 21st century parliament

December 2021

Jon Tonge Opinion Toasters, Translink and footy tops: the things I won’t miss from 2021

Jon Tonge Opinion If Boris survives the current crisis, don’t bet against a second term

Jon Tonge Opinion Citizens’ assemblies are a guide to change, not a cure for all our ills

November 2021

Jon Tonge Opinion Labour policy is to be neutral on NI, but has anyone told Sir Keir?

Jon Tonge Opinion No consensus on the past, but panel holds out hope for future

Jon Tonge Opinion Party politics and the sliding scale of popularity vs personality

Jon Tonge Opinion The title fight of FM and DFM… who’ll end up on the canvas?

October 2021

Jon Tonge Opinion Sinn Fein as top dog, north and south, is almost inevitable… unity isn’t

Jon Tonge Opinion Voucher scheme is a boost to retail, but can NI ever truly pay its own way?

Jon Tonge Opinion Despite some movement, Protocol argument is far from over

Jon Tonge Opinion Why Tories wouldn’t get out of bed to hear unionist fears over Protocol

Jon Tonge Opinion Why a unionist pact is as likely as a merger of the Blues and the Glens

September 2021

Jon Tonge Opinion Beattie must show he cares about something other than the NI Protocol

Jon Tonge Opinion Party conferences… dull speeches, foul wine, but great head massages

Jon Tonge Opinion DUP marks its half-century, but will it still be around in another 50 years?

August 2021

Jon Tonge Opinion Sinn Fein set to become NI’s largest political party… by doing nothing

Jon Tonge Opinion Whether it’s right to lower the voting age, the Northern Ireland Assembly should decide

Jon Tonge Opinion Irish unity poll rests in the hands of half-a-million stay-away voters

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