Pope phrased it wrongly, but he’s right... the world does need more babies

Not everyone agrees with him, and the green lobby — much influenced by David Attenborough — is committed to the view that human populations are polluting the planet. Yet the statistics are incontrovertible: Every nation hoping to replace its numbers in the next generation must produce 2.1 babies per woman. But all the developed countries — including Ireland, where fertility stands at 1.70 — have lower fertility than that.

Some are much lower — South Korea’s fertility recently dropped from a low of 1.1 to a catastrophic 0.84. Singapore is at 1.2, Italy and Greece at 1.3, Spain and Japan at 1.4.

Even in China and India, populations are falling. India was considered a major culprit of over-population when Paul Ehrlich published The Population Bomb in 1968, which started the panic about “too many people”. But India’s population, too, has fallen below replacement level — at 2.0 overall and 1.6 in the cities.

The world fertility rate has dropped by more than 50pc over the past six decades. High fertility is now largely confined to sub-Saharan Africa — Niger at 6.5, Somalia at 5.7, Mali at 5.5. — but demographers say these figures will also decline with development and access to family planning. Many people think it’s a good thing that world population is declining. It gives women and couples more choice and reduces the human footprint on the planet (although bear in mind that New York state releases many more harmful emissions than 45 countries in Africa).

But demographers also warn of the downside — when increasingly more old people are dependent on ever fewer young people to support their pensions. The demographer Jeremy Grantham predicts this will lead to an imbalanced society, higher inflation and lower economic growth.

The social structure of the family will change: Lower fertility means not only fewer children, but the disappearance of aunts, uncles and cousins, in consequence of the one-child family pattern. The loneliness already observed among the old is also cited. Japanese old people with no descendants are deliberately committing crimes to get sent to prison to find a community there.

Paul Morland, of the University of London, predicts that as we have fewer babies and more old people, societal changes are inevitable everywhere. There will be less crime, but also less dynamism and creativity. Ireland’s economic boom was prompted by an innovative younger workforce — ironically, arising from a previous period of higher fertility. The reasons for fewer babies are multi-factorial, and we can see the issues in everyday life. “Any grandchildren yet?” I asked a colleague in his 60s. “Difficult for our grown kids,” he replied, in a disappointed voice. “Cramped rented accommodation. No chance of a mortgage. Working in insecure jobs. Cost of living soaring.”

Younger generations remain longer in education, women wait longer to get their careers established, by which time their fertility may be declining. And affordable childcare isn’t always available.

But there are other, lifestyle reasons too. The knowledgeable Dr Anna Rotkirch, of the Population Research Institute of Finland, suggests “peer behaviour” can be influential in not having children.

In modern life, there can be “very few cues about having a baby. It is possible to get to the age of 35 and never hold a baby in your arms”. Social norms of personal freedom feed into the culture.

And yet, Dr Rotkirch notes, research shows most women would like to have at least two children — if the circumstances were enabling. Finland has marginally increased its fertility rate from 1.3 to 1.4 recently, and Dr Rotkirch thinks a policy of “making every baby welcome — within the framework of reproductive choice” could enhance fertility more. (A “baby box” is given to Finnish parents on the birth of every child.)

The “global baby bust” will cause problems. Artificial intelligence can replace humans at some jobs, but the human touch is still needed. Immigration can be a short-term solution to staff shortages, but immigrants also grow old and are likely to have falling fertility eventually.

Pope Francis was demographically correct, but he might have phrased his commentary more positively. Kids love pets — so why not have a baby as a companion to Rover and Tiddles?