With internal dissent obvious, how First Minister marshals dysfunctional Executive in immediate post-Covid era and deals with impact of Brexit is crucial if she is to survive beyond centenary year, writes Suzanne Breen
The DUP politician's prediction on his leader's future is stark: "Arlene will go to Northern Ireland centenary celebrations as First Minister, wearing her crown brooch. After that, she will be gone and a new leader will take us into the 2022 Assembly election."
It's five years this Thursday since the coronation of Arlene Isabel Foster as DUP leader, making history as both the first woman to head her party and to become First Minister. She was a breath of fresh air for many inside and outside unionism compared to the coldly calculating Peter Robinson.
Wherever she went, there was a queue to get selfies with her, even among people who traditionally had no time for the DUP. TUV leader Jim Allister complained to this reporter of a media love-in with "Arlene".
"She is treated like royalty. The press don't even use her formal title, you call her by her first name," he said." I wonder how long until this nonsense stops and she's treated like the rest of us."
Little did Jim know that the change in tone would be so spectacular. Foster's honeymoon period lasted almost a year before coming to a crashing halt with cash-for-ash.
Critical: Jim Allister was unhappy about the way media ‘cosied up’ to Foster early on
The Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal, which first came to wider public attention in December 2016, dominated her leadership for the next three years. Despite the subsequent inquiry finding no evidence of corruption, there is sustained speculation in DUP ranks about how long Foster will stay at the helm.
Some see a challenge next year from Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots. Others believe that Foster may choose to walk away with a likely seat in the House of Lords more attractive than constant firefighting at Stormont.
When she was installed as First Minister in January she knew it was literally her last chance to restore her political reputation. She has tried hard to reinvent herself and to remove the toxicity around her personally and brand DUP.
When Sinn Fein blatantly broke Covid-19 guidelines at Bobby Storey's funeral, she adopted a restrained, stateswomanlike approach that wasn't popular with everyone in unionist grassroots.
Foster is no longer the hate figure for nationalists that she was after her "crocodile" comments in 2017. Her poll ratings improved markedly this year with 'Other' voters who normally support Alliance or the Greens.
But her efforts to build bridges have been hugely hampered by some of the party's big personalities, whose unilateral acts during the pandemic have repeatedly undermined her. Foster's failure time and time again to take disciplinary action against them highlights her internal weakness and the limits to her authority.
Stormont sources say she has so far faced no challenge at the helm because Brexit and Covid-19 made the position of DUP leader a poisoned chalice. But, with a virus vaccine and the Brexit saga winding its way towards completion, that could change next year.
Foster is as tough as nails and it would be premature to write her political obituary. There is no one clear alternative to her as party leader. An MLA says: "Arlene has her faults but, when push comes to shove, I'd rather be walking around with her in my constituency at election time than with Pootsie or any of the others."
It's unfair to lay blame at Foster's door alone for the Brexit debacle that saw the Tories repeatedly betray the DUP and an Irish Sea border being built. Policy was decided collectively by the party leadership - no dissenting voices were heard.
At Stormont, Foster was embarrassed in July when only half of the 28 DUP MLAs elected to the Assembly voted for the Executive Committee (Functions) Bill which she had introduced. It was an unprecedented rebellion in the party's ranks.
The DUP leader's grip has weakened at Stormont because MLAs have declining faith in The Executive Office. The loss of old hands - in the form of special advisers Timothy Johnston and Richard Bullick - is keenly felt.
Ensconced at Stormont Castle from 2007, they had a wealth of experience and vital powers of persuasion - Bullick by skilful coaxing and Johnston by putting the fear of God in MLAs.
For entirely different reasons, neither man is likely to return to position.
There is a view among some in the party that its MLA team needs freshened up. Critics regard it as too male, stale and lacking in young faces.
A raft of councillors may be in the mix for Assembly nominations: Naomi Armstrong in Strangford; Kathryn Owen in South Down; Kyle Black in South Antrim: Clement Cuthbertson in Fermanagh and South Tyrone; Peter Johnston in East Antrim, and Margaret Tinsley in Upper Bann.
Foster's future as DUP leader is tied to her performance at Stormont in the first half of next year. Her greatest challenge will be to get the Executive running more smoothly in a post-Covid era.
How Brexit works out in practice will also be key to her survival.
If she has a decent six months, DUP sources say that momentum will carry her through to leading the party into the 2022 Assembly election. If the Executive remains highly dysfunctional, stumbling from crisis to crisis, she likely won't.
The party's election campaign will de facto begin this time next year. It's expected that the solo runs by MPs and MLAs will have disappeared by then. A senior source said it was acknowledged that "people don't vote for divided parties" and that self-interest alone would cause DUP rebels to show restraint.
Last year Sir Jeffrey Donaldson ruled himself out of a leadership challenge amidst rumours that he was positioning himself to move. The Lagan Valley MP's name remains out there as a future contender, as does his constituency colleague Poots.
Donaldson is the party's most capable and articulate media performer. He is often brought in to front up the show at key times when Foster is under pressure. He would not alienate moderate nationalists and Alliance voters in a way that some other Duppers would.
Poots has been the biggest thorn in the side for Foster at Stormont. In his vocal opposition to lockdown restrictions, he has reflected the feelings of many in the DUP grassroots.
He has worked hard to build a strong relationship with fellow MLAs, regularly visiting their constituencies. Along with the party's MPs, they will choose the next leader, so Poots' wooing the MLAs is notable.
But there are factors working against him. His remarks that coronavirus was more common in nationalist areas backfired and, as Agriculture and Environment Minister, he will be responsible for building the Irish Sea border.
Sources have said that in the event of Foster standing down, it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that Nigel Dodds could take a leave of absence from the House of Lords and return to the Assembly to lead the party. "It has been raised as an option, albeit an outside one," an insider said.
All sorts of future scenarios have been discussed including splitting the First Minister and party leader positions to allow the DUP to be led from Westminster.
East Belfast MP Gavin Robinson has been promoted heavily in the media, and appears to be the clear favourite to succeed Foster with some influential figures. Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart is talked of as a potential deputy leader.
Ian Paisley led the DUP for 37 years; Peter Robinson for seven. Foster would surely not want to become her party's shortest serving leader, although those past five years must at times have felt like 50 given how much she has come through.
