Panic must be setting in behind that well varnished door at DUP headquarters. It’s been easier for Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to restore the woodwork than his party’s electoral fortunes.
onths away from the election, it’s not making up the ground it needs to on Sinn Fein. The days of the indomitable DUP are over. It seems like another era, but it was only two years ago that it secured 31% to Sinn Fein’s 23% in the Westminster election. Michelle O’Neill’s party now leads its rival by the same margin in the new LucidTalk poll.
Yet it’s not quite over. There is a pathway to victory for the DUP, although you wouldn’t fancy its chances. If it happens, it won’t be all-conquering. To emerge as the largest party, it will have to claw its way back. The tactics will be dirty, and in constituencies it will be a real scrap. Bucketfuls of luck will be required.
Sir Jeffrey needs movement on the protocol rapidly. There are two schools of thought on whether that’s likely. One is that the Tories are too focused on internal business to deliver for the DUP. The other believes the Prime Minister is looking for a distraction and playing the tough man in Europe might provide one.
Nobody can doubt the high esteem in which the DUP leader is held at Westminster — the government’s now binned double-jobbing proposal proves that.
The DUP will pledge not to enter government after the poll if there’s no movement on the protocol. But Jim Allister will point to its previous promises to crash Stormont and dismiss this as just another “hollow threat”.
MLAs are increasingly nervous about the election. Many believe Sir Jeffrey should have dealt with the protocol long ago and the party should now be in campaigning mode as opposed to still grappling with the issues.
While there is no threat to his leadership, a common complaint made is that Donaldson “dithers”. The party is now selecting its Assembly candidates. With other parties having announced most of their hopefuls and with big teams already out and about, the DUP is behind the curve.
Sir Jeffrey was at the centre of negative headlines on double-jobbing. More controversy is likely if some MLAs aren’t reselected, although he will manage any changes as deftly as possible.
If Donaldson makes good on his promise to introduce more female and young talent, it will help the party connect with a broader swathe of voters. Yet traditional tactics will be employed by a DUP desperate to hold onto Stormont’s top job. The fear factor about the prospect of a Sinn Fein First Minister will be front and centre of its campaign. Emotions will be whipped up to unprecedented levels, although this could be a double-edged sword. The tactics backfired in North Belfast when John Finucane unseated Nigel Dodds. The more the party raises the stakes against Sinn Fein, the more moderate nationalists will be tempted to give it a bloody nose.
Sir Jeffrey’s primary focus will be winning back voters who have migrated to Jim Allister. The party firmly believes this is doable. It’s not worried about any individual TUV candidates, whom it sees as lacking the personal pulling power of their leader.
Allister’s pitch in the election will be that only by voting for his party can pressure be kept on the DUP regarding the protocol.
It’s as it were for the Ulster Unionists, who remain on 14%. That’s better than they were polling under Steve Aiken, but Beattie may have hoped for more. Still, there is immense faith in the new leader across the party. It’s looking forward to the campaign beginning and believes its man can make advances.
Beattie’s popularity and that of Robin Swann is a powerful combination that will make the UUP more transfer-friendly, but it’s so far behind that it needs a monumental swing for more seats.
Ryan McCready in Foyle is the most eye-catching candidate despite the UUP lagging far behind the DUP in every recent election there. Stephen McCarthy is also one to watch in South Belfast.
Alliance has seven MLAs, and it’s impossible to see that number not significantly increasing. It’s not just the quantity of possible new arrivals, it’s the quality. Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley, Paddy Brown in South Down and Eoin Tennyson in Upper Bann are hugely impressive.
With Alliance down 1% and the Greens up by the same, it’s important we don’t overlook the latter in the Assembly race.
Clare Bailey is routinely elected on late counts in South Belfast, and every party in the constituency believes her seat is the most vulnerable. This poll should give confidence to her and Rachel Woods in North Down. The prominence of climate change in the media will help hugely.
The Greens are also hoping for a strong showing from councillor Brian Smyth in East Belfast.
Colum Eastwood has done nothing wrong yet his popularity just isn’t translating into gains for his party. He and Claire Hanna benefited from Brexit in the Westminster poll, but the framing of this election — with Sinn Fein and the DUP vying to be top dog — doesn’t help at all.
The SDLP is trying to challenge this narrative by arguing that it’s a fake contest which suits both parties – it now routinely refers to Northern Ireland’s “Joint First Ministers”.
But given the high-octane exchanges we’re likely to see between Stormont’s big two over the next three months, it will be a struggle for that message to cut through.
