A large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine would change the politics of the whole continent

Russian-backed separatists control the Donbas region of south-east Ukraine and Russia has of course annexed Crimea, though Moscow maintains that it was merely supporting the choices of the people who live there.

But why would Russia invade Ukraine?

Russia is resolutely opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, which Ukraine has been trying to join since 2014. The Russians do not want western troops on their borders, and do not want Ukraine’s frontiers guaranteed by the west.

Russia maintains Ukraine discriminates against Russian speakers and is “ousting the Russian language from all spheres of life”.

Much of the east of Ukraine is Russian speaking, although up until the 1930s most people in these areas were ethnically Ukrainian. Stalin’s ‘terror famine’ changed that, by accident or design is disputed.

But for Russia, it is NATO and the USA which are stoking the flames, not them:

“By sending weapons to Ukraine, US is encouraging Kiev's aggressive actions against its own population in Donbas,” Moscow’s foreign ministry maintains.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine as a nation, claiming it is a creation of Polish elites, a state with “no historical basis” and saying that Russians and Ukrainians are “a single whole”.

“Therefore, modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era.”

“I am confident the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”

“For we are one people,” he has written.

Those words seem ominous, familiar even. They have an historical precedent. Whilst the Russian view is not entirely without an historical basis, Ukraine maintains its own uniqueness and claim to sovereignty.

Ukrainian culture and language were oppressed during the period when the region was ruled by Russia, but a national consciousness founded on them emerged in the 19th century among the intelligentsia, though its roots go much deeper than that. It is a typical example of European nationalism, many of the words above will be recognisable themes.

Nevertheless, Putin maintains that Russia is not “anti-Ukraine” despite believing that Ukrainian statehood is built on “hate and anger” and that it is engaged in an “anti-Russia project”.

He has said that the country’s destiny is up to its citizens to decide (though not it seems to join the EU or NATO), but it is very clear he does not believe that Ukraine’s borders are its natural ones:

“Russia was robbed,” he believes.

The are many questions. If it is indeed the case that Russia intends to strike, and that this is all not a diplomatic game (though that’s how many wars begin), what would Russia’s ultimate aims be?

Would they conquer the entire country or just the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine?

Would they attempt to install a friendly regime or rule directly from Moscow?

Would Ukraine resist, certainly – they have a large military, the third largest in Europe.

Would they successfully resist? – unlikely, according to military experts, but they could feasibly inflict heavy casualties on the Russians.

Would they continue a guerrilla campaign against occupation, history indicates that would be likely.

Only one thing is certain, the consequences of a large-scale war in Europe in 2022 would, of course, be appalling in humanitarian terms and would change the geo-politics of the continent instantly.

Would the EU allow a large-scale migration from Ukraine, including its defeated armed forces?

Europe gets 40% of its natural gas supply from Russia, could it realistically apply “crippling sanctions” to it therefore, probably not.