I don't remember a time when distrust between unionism and the UK Government was as high as it is now

Alex Kane

A perfect storm of discontent lies ahead... everyone needs to remain measured and calm, writes Alex Kane

Anger: Loyalist protesters during unrest on Lanark Way in Belfast

April 23 2021 06:30 AM

I was particularly struck by three responses in the latest polling. Asked to consider the statement, "Northern Ireland has put its violent past behind it and any future political decisions will be made peacefully and democratically", almost half of the respondents on both sides of the border disagreed. Think about that. A quarter-of-a-century after the peace process began in earnest and almost 50% believe it's unlikely political decisions can be made within peaceful, political parameters.

If you think that's depressing, consider the response to this statement: "The dispute over Northern Ireland's status remains unresolved and there is still a potential for violence in the future." Over three-quarters of the respondents, again on both sides of the border, agreed with it. But how, given the time, cash and effort poured into the peace process over 25 years, are we at a point where a hefty majority believe the use of violence is more likely than not when it comes to resolving the constitutional impasse? And people accuse me of pessimism. Let's consider the third response: "To what extent do you trust the following when it comes to managing the interests of Northern Ireland with respect to the Protocol." 63% distrust or distrust a lot the Executive (15% trusting or trusting a lot). 60% distrust or distrust a lot the Assembly (16% trusting or trusting a lot).

No real surprises, to be honest. Confidence in the Executive/Assembly hasn't been high for some time (predating the last three-year Reichenbach Fall hiatus) and tensions over Covid haven't improved things.

But I hold the view that if the centre isn't consensual and cohesive, then it's no surprise when there are political/societal tensions further on down.

The genuinely astonishing figure, though, is how we view the UK Government: 86% distrust or distrust it a lot. Only 5% trust it or trust it a lot. The Irish government, on the other hand, is distrusted/distrusted a lot by 48% (quite a few of whom are likely to be unionist); and trusted/trusted a lot by 34%.

What makes the UK Government figure astonishing is that the only explanation I can offer for the 5% trust/trust a lot level of support is that the vast majority of unionists don't trust it at all.

That's an awful lot of unionists - and I really do mean an awful lot - who don't trust the UK Government to manage the interests of Northern Ireland re the Protocol. Or, putting that another way, a vast majority of unionists (including those from a "small-u" unionist background) don't trust a British Government to protect or promote their interests during the greatest constitutional challenge to the Union in living memory.

These figures will overshadow and shape a collective unionist strategy over the next few months, making compromise or backtracking very difficult to pull off in the absence of Boris Johnson either scrapping the Protocol unilaterally, or somehow managing to persuade the EU to agree concessions (stopping short of ditching it altogether) which will please unionism.

The other thing to bear in mind is the next Assembly election is less than a year away, making it even more difficult for unionist reversals or u-turning.

The problem for Johnson and the EU is all of party-political unionism, along with loyalism and the Orange Order, is opposed to the very existence of the Protocol.

You can sense their collective anger about being kicked around by Boris Johnson; bringing to mind the words of Lord Carson in the House of Lords in 1921: "Ulster has stuck too well to you, and you believe because she is loyal you can kick her as you like."

I don't remember a time (and I'm into the Methuselah years of my career) when the level of distrust between unionism and a UK government was as high as it is right now: and these polling figures confirm.

There were previous moments of angst and anger (1972, 1974 and 1985 spring to mind), but unionists could take comfort in what was still their impressive electoral strength.

That strength has diminished, which explains the scale of the present disconnect and fear. Comfort was also taken from the fact that the 1972, 1974 and 1985 "moments" were more about political damage and discomfort to unionism, rather than the present very specific and, some would argue, very palpable constitutional damage of the Protocol.

Can the trust be rebuilt? The simple answer is that it must be. The bedrock of Northern Ireland unionism is the Union and the link between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Damage that - as many unionist now believe it has been - and Northern Ireland unionism, as well as the Union itself, is damaged.

The angst is being played out on the streets; in the Loyalist Communities Council withdrawal of support from the Good Friday Agreement; in the talk of stepping unionism away from the Assembly.

All of this feeds into the response to the likelihood of renewed violence and the fear that peace and democracy will not be the route to further changes.

There has been an attempt to explain the figures against the present background of recent protests; yet, my gut instinct/pessimism tells me the figures would have been high anyway, because there is so little evidence supporting the presence of a deep-rooted confidence in our ability to "do" politics without resorting to the "old ways".

The figures hint at a perfect storm for real trouble ahead. Everyone - and I do mean everyone - needs to remain measured and calm.

Alex Kane is a writer and political commentator