Poll poses problems for nationalists and republicans as well as unionists

I wouldn’t get too carried away with one poll. The stats aren’t great for the DUP, but I still expect them to come out on top at the next Assembly election. Allister wants the NI Protocol removed but he won’t shaft the DUP if his actions bring about Sinn Fein First Minister. The Executive Office is a joint office but the symbolism matters to political unionism.

LucidTalk’s poll still illustrates a dilemma for the DUP and political unionism itself. The growth of Alliance and the TUV represents a fork in the road. Politicians face a choice: follow the moderate path or further lean into conservative, reactionary politics.

The choice has grown even more stark in light of threats to border control staff and racist graffiti targeting Leo Varadkar. In recent days Alliance representatives Stephen Farry and Kellie Armstrong have both had their offices targeted with graffiti.

There doesn’t appear to be a link to loyalist paramilitaries but whoever the agitators are, they blame Alliance for the NI Protocol , although some DUP MLAs have had their offices targeted.

For many unionists and loyalists, the NI Protocol represents an assault on their identity and aspirations. It’s as damaging to their political psyche as a hard border with the south would be for nationalist and republicans. Many share their concerns about its implications for Northern Ireland’s economy.

It’s utterly ridiculous to blame Alliance for the NI Protocol. The party voted against it in Parliament and refused to give consent for the Withdrawal Agreement in the Assembly. The Party wanted the Protocol to be implemented but only because the alternative was a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The NI Protocol came about because of the actions of the British government and the European Union. Anger should be directed at them, but in a peaceful, democratic way. Political parties in Northern Ireland should come together to make collective representations to the EU and Boris Johnson.

Jim Allister’s proposal to bring down the Protocol by disrupting the Assembly and North-South bodies will make unionists feel better for a few days, but it’s unlikely to get them anywhere.

Causing political disruption in the middle of a pandemic while hospital waiting lists soar and people are losing their jobs would be the height of political idiocy. The plan won’t improve the lives of anyone in Northern Ireland. It will only alienate moderates and boost nationalist and republican confidence.

Research from Uniting UK shows that the ‘neithers’ in Northern Ireland find political unionism off putting. They see it as an ideology for “old men.” Outside of the NI Protocol, the actions of political unionism will have long term implications for Northern Ireland and its place within the union.

The people targeting Alliance and border control posts are a minority within unionism and loyalism. Most people will reject their tactics. Political leaders still need to be careful not to fan the flames.

The DUP and UUP say the UK should invoke Article 16. No doubt the EU made a catastrophic error when the Commission invoked the clause last Friday. Its claims to care about the political situation in Northern Ireland lie on shattered ground.

Given the backlash and chaos caused by the Commission’s decision, I’m not sure why anybody would want to repeat the experience. Why would you look at the reputational damage to the EU think, ‘cool, we should get in on that.’ Article 16 doesn’t remove the Protocol and its procedure is messy and complicated. It’s not the silver bullet people think it is.

If people want to get rid of the NI Protocol, they’re going to have to present a viable alternative. A hard border between North and South isn’t the answer. We’ll just replace one problem with another.

Whatever choice is made, cool heads need to prevail. The NI Protocol has left Northern Ireland in a difficult, uncertain place. We need to make sure that the situation doesn’t get worse.