Statistics fluctuate but one constant is that orange and green don't agree on NI's future

The percentage of Catholics identifying as nationalist has also risen. And those nationalists are rather like children in December - excited that Father Christmas, or in this case, Irish unity, is coming soon.

More than half of nationalists (54%) believe a united Ireland will happen within 20 years.

But unionists seem confident they are wrong. As they prepare to celebrate Northern Ireland's centenary next year, it looks like some have taken a punt on a bicentennial bash. Only 20% think the game is up and that a united Ireland will arrive within 20 years.

Those unionists will be greatly encouraged by the QUB/UU finding that only 22% want a united Ireland as long-term policy, compared to 44% wanting a devolved Northern Ireland under UK rule and 16% desiring direct Westminster rule.

That 22% support for a united Ireland is significantly lower than the 29% in the University of Liverpool-led 2019 general election study, which did not exactly have nationalists queuing up to buy me a drink. Note: academics do not decide who 'wins' surveys. We deal with the world as it is, not as we might want it to be.

The level of backing for a united Ireland is also way below that reported in recent online surveys, conducted mainly by LucidTalk.

The debate over whether face-to-face studies, like this latest QUB/UU offering, more accurately measure the electorate than online surveys rumbles on.

The "shy united Irelander" thesis will not disappear. The organisers of this study admit that the Sinn Fein vote is under-reported (it is not an election study). But Brandon Lewis will not be calling a border poll anytime soon on this latest evidence.

Throughout the Brexit uproar, the assumption of many was that dragging Northern Ireland out of the EU against the will of the majority would create momentum for constitutional change.

It still might. But we continue waiting.

In 1998, this same Life and Times survey asked respondents their preferred long-term policy for Northern Ireland.

What percentage wanted a united Ireland? Exactly the same as reported now - 22%.

It is also worth noting that our own Liverpool study found that, even among electors saying they are anti-Brexit, there was a very slight majority for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK, although, excluding 'don't knows', it could hardly have been closer, at 50.5% for the constitutional status quo and 49.5% wanting a united Ireland.

But nationalists believe that the wind is in their political sails.

Some 77% believe that Brexit has made a united Ireland more likely and 69% say it has made them more in favour of the prospect. Unionists remain, well, unionists. Only 2% say it has made them more sympathetic to a united Ireland and just 22% say it has increased the likelihood.

The ARK survey finds the percentage of those identifying as neither unionist nor nationalist down 11% to 40%.

The new figure tallies with what we found in the general election study and 50% always seemed high.

Whilst a reduction in those declaring as 'neither' might be seen as potentially derailing the Alliance bandwagon, it is worth noting that 40% of the general election vote for Naomi Long's party came from voters who do see themselves as either unionist or nationalist.

The clearest message from this survey though is that nationalists and unionists do not just disagree on Northern Ireland's constitutional future. They also disagree about what is happening regarding that future.

Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool and Director of the last four Northern Ireland general election surveys